Will the Fed crash the stock market?
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish*
- Trading model: Neutral*
* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on Twitter at @humblestudent and on Mastodon at @[email protected]. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
A week ago, I wrote that I was bullish on the equity outlook, but the S&P 500 appeared to be extended short-term and the Powell testimony and Jobs Report could be sources of volatility (see China: Global bullish catalyst?). I was right on the volatility as Powell sounded a hawkish tone and the SVB crisis didn’t help matters. The S&P 500 violated its key support levels at the 50 dma and 200 dma. In addition, the equal-weighted S&P 500, the mid-cap S&P 400, and the small-cap Russell 2000 all blew through the bottom of descending channels.
Source: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2023/03/will-fed-crash-stock-market.html
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