ES Morning Update April 14th 2023

A nice grind higher yesterday, which looks a lot like a stop run on the bears. We could see more of it today but I don’t see anything bullish here… at least not on a swing trade basis from week to week. I don’t day trade so I don’t have an opinion on the ups and down each day.

Overall this is just a sideways choppy zone that’s making a bull flag on a weekly basis, which even if it pops higher I still think we drop next week with 4000 or lower as my target. This is a time where I think the bull flag will fail… either right off the bat, or a quick pop that can’t hold. It reminds me of December 13th 2022 where we saw a fast pop higher that got completely reversed the next few days.

We could see that happen again, or not? Meaning we could just tank without seeing that pop higher… I just don’t know? Now is not the time to look for longs in my opinion. It’s the time to exit them and get shorts or go to cash. We are overbought now, and while we could go a little higher odds are very strong that it won’t hold and that we’ll be going back down next week.

There’s a lot of banks earnings that are scheduled to start coming out today, which again… could give us that pop higher, but it should not hold. I’m still short and will hold as everything still tells me we go down next week.

I’ll be interested in a long next week at 4000 or lower, but not right now. Overall the market is following my forecast from Monday pretty well. I didn’t think we’ll rally up this high but it’s still within the expected forecast, so all it good. We’ll see what happens today I guess. Have a great weekend.