ES Morning Update April 18th 2023

I thought that we might be starting the pullback yesterday but the market recovered into the close with a late day rally, which is continuing this morning. To me it’s just SkyNet playing games and running stops on anyone still short or trying to short now. It’s a game of patience it seems… or maybe a game “chicken”?

Time is running out though for this pullback, which tells me it’s probably going to be a one or two day move, and that’s all she wrote. This Wednesday or Thursday has the highest odds, but after that the window for the bears will close. I still think it’s coming as history just doesn’t support this pattern for breaking out and running hard to the next resistance zone.

Looking at the past I see too many periods similar to this one and they all had a pullback of some degree. How much varies on whether or not the market was in a bullish trend or bearish one. Currently I think we are in a medium term bullish period, which is why I’m only looking for a short lived pullback. Here’s a chart explaining what I’m talking about.

As you can see odds do not favor a breakout from this week plus long bull flag. A pullback of some amount has always come after such a period. And that’s both in the bullish and bearish trends. The pullback was more of course in the bearish period then the bullish one, but in both cases one did happen. My patience is running thin of course but I remain committed to my shorts until the end of this week to allow the bears their window of time to make this pullback happen. Have a blessed day.