ES Morning Update April 20th 2023

Finally… some action this morning! The rising white trendline of support is now being pushed through. Today has always had the highest odds for the move down this week that I’ve been looking for, but I never expected it to happen all in one day.

Anyway, if this selling goes as expected then we should drop to around 4000 today on the SPX (about 4025-4030 ES), and that will scare the crap out of all the bulls and lure in the bears at the bottom. From that low we should rally back up on Friday at least half the move down I believe.

And this low should not be revisited until mid-late May… meaning that it’s a one day event and that we’ll be going back up (choppy probably) into this current 4150-4200 zone of resistance into the May 3rd FOMC. So I’ll be looking to exit my short today by the close and go long, that’s “if” this all plays out. If not I’ll exit my shorts at a lost and go to cash as I’m not going long up here without a pullback. Have a blessed day.