ES Morning Update April 3rd 2023

Note: I had some computer problems and wasn’t able to post todays update at the normal time before the open.

Last Friday wasn’t a “bore” after all it seems. I kind of thought we’d go mostly sideways, to up slightly but instead it was a steady move up all day. That’s fine with me as it didn’t change anything on my wave count, it just extended higher then I expected.

I still think we are inside “set 3″, further inside “ET3″, and that “3″ is ending. The “4″ should be a sideways to slightly down move today and tomorrow I suspect. Then Wednesday and Thursday I think the “5″ up happens to complete and end “set 3″. I don’t know if it reaches 4171 (ES) or not, but it’s possible for sure as it’s not much further up then the close on Friday at 4139.

This week Friday will be closed as it’s the Good Friday holiday, so volume should be light all week and especially the last part of the week. This aids in my “small pullback” thoughts for “4″ as it’s a very small degree wave inside “set 3″ up and should not be anything big on the downside. And with traders likely leaving early this coming Thursday a float up into the close is likely I think.

That “float up” should end “set 3″ most likely and then the following week we’ll see “set 4″ down play out.  But that pullback should be deeper then just “4″ of course as it’s a larger degree wave, and it should last all of the week of April 10th-14th, and could carry over into the first part of the follow week.

I suspect it will be a couple hundred points, like maybe a pierce of 4000 to lure in some bears? Back in to that mid-3900′s zone where the market has spent many days chopping inside of for weeks does seem likely, but we’ll just have to wait and see I guess.

Wherever it stops at I’d then be looking for “set 5″ up to take us up to possibly 4259 ES that I labeled on my March 31st morning update. I don’t know the time frame, but I previously guessed at last week that it could be OPEX this month.  I’m now thinking it will take longer, but don’t know how much?  It might go into the fourth week of this month, or even extend into May not sure?

From there though we should get a much deeper pullback, like back down near the ET2 low of 3839 ES, but it should NOT take it out as if it does then my wave count will be wrong as Extra Tiny Wave 4 (ET4) should never go lower then Extra Tiny Wave 2 (ET2). No wave 4′s can go lower then wave 2′s as if that happens the wave count is wrong.

I’ve said many times that I’m not an Elliottwave expert and that I don’t trust it very much in forecasting the future. However, the technicals (and other stuff, like “time” and “seasonality”) suggest to me that this market isn’t going to crash this month, or next month. The summer months of June, July and August are the more likely period were the October 2022 low could be taken out.

So this wave count that I have aligns up with those thoughts. Meaning that we should end Extra Tiny Wave 3 (ET3) up in mid-late April to early May, then pullback for Extra Tiny Wave 4 (ET4) into May, possibly June, and finally we take 1-2 months to go up and finish Extra Tiny Wave 5 (ET5), which ends Tiny Wave C (TC) and Small Wave 2 (S2).   The last wave up could be a “truncated” 5th wave an just make a double top, slightly lower high into late June or early July?  We could see it do the lower high on some indexes and a slightly higher one on another (the DOW?).

After that we can see a really big drop for Small Wave 3 (S3) inside Medium Wave C (MC) into July or so.  That’s too far into the future to figure out so we won’t worry about it for now.  On a side note I will remind you that the FP of 195.00 on IWM should be hit on that final wave up for the start of the crash wave.

If it hits it in April/May for Extra Tiny Wave 3 up (ET3) then I’d lean toward the truncate 5th wave for Extra Tiny Wave 5 up (ET5) into June/July… and of course if it’s not hit with ET3 then it should be hit with ET5.

Have a blessed day.