ES Morning Update May 15th 2023

Once again there’s not much to say. I should have listened to myself last Monday when I talked about the market chopping into OPEX as that’s what it’s looking likely to do. I was wishing for a pop last Wednesday on the CPI to hit the FP on the SPY, and triple top, so I could get short.. but failed to get up there.

Then jobs data and PPI failed to do that last pop too. So I wait patently for some kind of of last rally up to appear this week. Everything still says we’ll be going down next week toward that rising light blue trendline around 4000, but SkyNet isn’t making it easy to catch.

I think the move will be fast and short lived, so I’ll be exiting quickly and getting long for the rally up into June. As far as the bigger picture I’m still not sure if we are in a bullish wave count or bearish one. There’s still a risk of a drop to 3000 or lower after the last high in June or July.

Maybe the wave count is some mixture between bullish and bearish? Like what if the drop happens in a flash crash type move and then we reverse back up super fast to new all time highs into the end of the year? Possible but unlikely with the Fed raising rates still. I guess if they reversed completely (pivot) and started lower rates and doing QE (quantitative easing) we could see another rally like the one up from the 2020 low… but again, I doubt that will happen.

Due to the massive money printing, and laundering from the Biden gangster gang the value of the dollar will keep going down and inflation will keep going up. That means the Fed must continue to raise rates. Maybe they pause in June or July but they will be forced to start the raising process back up at some point again.

So I don’t see any repeat of the rally up from the 2020 low happening, but I could see a crash move similar playing out again. First though we have to get topped out and that doesn’t look likely until summer sometime, maybe into the fall. As for the short term I don’t know what day (or if it happens?) this week we’ll rally up to hit the FP on the SPY. I’ll just being trying to find some good short entry and take my chances I guess. Have a blessed day.