ES Morning Update May 23rd 2023

Yesterday we saw a dull day as expected, with a slight upward bias. It looks like it is craving out a wave 4 down of some very small degree as last Wednesday and Thursdays move up was an obvious wave 3, then that 4 down started on Friday.  It’s unclear on whether or not it completed and the move up yesterday was the 5, or the 4 is still in play as some kind of ABC move down.

Everything looks to be nearing completion soon though as even if we still have a 5 up yet to come there’s not much left “point wise” on the upside.  If it happens then I think it would be to fill the gap on the SPX from 8/19/22 as shown on this chart.  However, keep in mind that I am still expecting higher prices into June or July (4250-4300), so they might wait until then to fill it.

So a move down is near and could start today. I still don’t expect anything really big on the downside as I covered in yesterdays post. The rising yellow gold trendline will be the first support on the coming move down this week. It’s not huge support, so it’s likely just good for the first hit of it.

The bigger support is the 2 week chop zone to make the diamond pattern that cuts through the green falling trendline. That zone is centered around 4150 on the ES, which would be around where the rising yellow gold trendline is at today or tomorrow. If it hits fast (and pierces through possibly) it will most likely the move down will be blamed on some news and surprise everyone when it happens.

Possibly some failure to get anything done with the debt ceiling? I really don’t know but the charts suggest a pullback will happen this week as there’s just too much resistance above that 4200 zone up to 4300 for any move up to get through right now. Negative divergences are everywhere and wave patterns look complete, or almost complete (short term), so this is just a waiting game… nothing more.

One last thing, the reading of the minutes of the prior FOMC is this Wednesday, which even-though nothing new is added to it the market still likes to wait “just in case” Powell adds something. Have a blessed day.