It’s time to revisit the bigger picture. I’m still leaning toward the bearish wave count as I just don’t see the fuel needed anywhere to get this market up to a new all time high into the end of the year. Every strong rally up is just shorts getting squeezed and not the smart money buying, which isn’t a good sign for a strong rally up that lasts.
And there’s sector rotation still going on with the Nasdaq the strongest, then the SPX and lastly the DOW. In a truly strong and healthy bull market all sectors will go up in sync, but that’s not happening right now. Instead the market is just having wild swings up and down from news event.
Whether it’s the Non Farm Payroll Report, CPT, PPI, or Debt Ceiling, it’s something that causes this ping pong to happen week after week with no clear strong trend. Yeah, it’s making a series of higher highs and higher lows but not by a lot… and NOT like a truly strong bull market is supposed too do.
Therefore all the evidence still suggests this is just a counter trend rally up from the October low that will eventually be followed with a new lower low. When I don’t know of course, but I can guess… and that’s what I’m doing here on the chart below.
It is my bearish wave count and what I’m doing is to add in the Seasonality period (and cycles too, but I didn’t put those on the chart) to try and forecast “when” the larger degree waves will most likely happen.
From a “seasonality” period the market should be up into early June and then late June it is weak. This is a logical time period where Tiny Wave 3 up should top and end, followed by Tiny Wave 4 down… which again should end around the last week of June. After that there is a strong period through most all of July for Tiny Wave 5 up to unfold.
Doing the Fibonacci Retracement Levels back up from the October 2022 low, along with the January 2022 high, the 61.8% level on the ES is at 4309.26, which ironically is around the high from August of 2022 (4327.50). Now I’ve never seen a market stop right perfectly at the 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% level… well, maybe a few times (if you give a 5 points “close enough” slippage for it).
Normally though the market will go somewhere in-between, like to say 53%, or 59%, or even 74% if it takes out the 61.8% level. That 78.6% level is at 4528.71, which I do not think we will even get close too… but we could reach 64% or so?
What would that be you ask? It would be 4338, and 65% would be 4351, with 66% being 4364. You can probably figure out what I’m thinking here, and if you can’t, this is it… I think they will hit the stops above the August 2022 high of 4327.50 before they top out and start down for Small Wave 1 inside Medium Wave C.
And since that will be viewed as a double top by many, new shorts will pile on… but SkyNet never makes it that easy. I further think that Small Wave 2 back up will shake all those bears out again with some 90%+ retracement into a September high. It’s from there that we could see some kind of flash crash type move down for Small Wave 3, 4 and 5… or maybe just S3, leaving a couple of months of chop for S4 with another Christmas low for S5 to end MC.
Now that late December low doesn’t align up with the Seasonality but it did happen in 2018, which fooled a lot of traders. Why couldn’t it happen again? Who knows for sure. That’s too far in advance to figure out, but shorter term certainly does align up with a late July, then a September top, and an October low. How high or how low I just don’t know? If the 3502 low from October of last year gets taken out then I’d say we’ll see 2900-3000 for sure. And it should get taken out if this is indeed a Medium Wave C down from the January 2022 high of 4808.25.
Have a blessed day.
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