Tripwires to a deeper correction
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities (Last changed from “sell” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trend Model signal: Bullish (Last changed from “neutral” on 28-Jul-2023)*
- Trading model: Neutral (Last changed from “bearish” on 03-Aug-2023)*
* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends. I am also on X/Twitter at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real time here.
Where’s the bottom?
I highlighted how the 5-week RSI of the S&P 500 became extremely overbought. In the past, such instances have resolved with a correction (check), a relief rally (check), followed by a re-test of the correction lows. In three of the last four cases, the second re-test held at the old lows. The only exception was the COVID Crash of 2020, which was panic driven by macro fundamentals. If history is any guide, the next corrective low should terminate at about the site of the August low, which is ~4350.
While my base case is a bottom at about 4350, I nevertheless have to allow for the possibility of a deeper correction. Here’s what I am watching.
Source: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2023/09/tripwires-to-deeper-correction.html
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