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The term premium red herring

Saturday, October 14, 2023 13:43

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About a week ago, market anxiety was high over surging Treasury yields, which was attributed to concerns over a soaring fiscal deficit and a rising supply of Treasury paper. This led to upward pressure on the term premium, or compensation for holding longer duration assets, and real yields.

Here’s what has happened since the peak in rate anxiety. In the space of a week, the market had to face a blowout jobs report, a surprise Middle East war, and hot PPI and slightly hot CPI prints. In the face of such news, one would think this would put upward pressure on yields. Instead, Treasury yields retreated.
The fall in yields was initially attributable to a flight to safety, but such an explanation doesn’t seem plausible as the USD Index fell in lockstep. If there had been a flight to safety, the USD would have been bid.

What happened? The most reasonable explanation is that the jitters over rising term premium and real rates was a red herring.

The full post can be found here.

Source: http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2023/10/the-term-premium-red-herring.html

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