ES Morning Update January 12th 2024

My gut feeling about the CPI being a “dud” and not giving that fast spike higher and quick reversal was right. There was a little movement up and down (maybe 10 points?) but by the open it was about flat. Then the drop started slowly as I also thought would happen… but I wasn’t expecting the full retrace back up into the close.

That was a sneaky move for sure, but it doesn’t mean the bears are dead. It only tells me that the market could want to hold up into the 3 day holiday weekend as Monday is closed for Martin Luther King day. The futures aren’t closed that day so we could see a high put in on the 15th that gets reversed back down by the open on Tuesday.

That means today won’t do much, maybe down a little or up a little but overall a “pause” day to close out the week looking good for the bulls. As for Monday I don’t know if it’s going to be a higher high then 12/28 or lower high, but by the open on Tuesday they should be back down so the cash market (SPX) doesn’t make a new all time high.

I’m still very bearish here as all this chop up in this area is nothing but distribution in my opinion. I thought the drop today would hold and keep going but I was wrong, but on the bigger picture I think I’m right.  And guessing on the pause day today is just that… a guess.  We could also sell off again back down to the low from yesterday and lower?  Meaning I’m not counting on the market holding up today.  I could drop nicely as well.

Have a great weekend.