ES Morning Update January 17th 2024

We had some small cracks in the ice for the bulls yesterday as the market pierced through the lower trendline of the rising dashed orange channel. It recovered quickly but still closed red for the day. It’s not been easy the past month to see this market stay in a range for so long, but it’s setting up a large move… which could go up of course, but the technicals do not support that path.

They point to a large drop, which is why I’m still short. Once the bulls lose the rising channel the move down should be fast I believe with support only at the 4702 prior low from last Thursday and then it’s straight down to the 4550-4600 zone.

I don’t see any bullish scenario from the technicals other then the inverted head and shoulders pattern… but that pattern is most effective at the bottom and on the way up, not after a new all time high has been put in. So I’m not even going to cover the bullish case unless I see a really strong breakout to the upside that looks like the one that followed the 4550-4600 zone.

Meaning I’d want to see a lot of steady volume day after day, not just some fast squeeze that runs the stops before reversing back down quickly. Is that possible to have one more higher high? Sure, anything is possible… but it’s not likely. The market has spent a month in this 100 point range and given the bulls tons of time to get long, so I don’t think they will reward them. That’s my two cents.

Have a blessed day.