ES Morning Update January 19th 2024

We got the rally up yesterday that I thought would happen, but I kind of thought it would rollover and drop into the close to put in lower low then yesterday for my small wave 5 to complete the medium wave 3… but the rally went up all day with only a midday pullback to even. This makes me zoom out some to see it that wave count is right or not, and I think it needs to be re-labeled. The following chart is what I think it is now:

What has changed is that I now think Wednesday low was just small wave 1 inside medium wave 3 down, whereas the prior wave count had that low as completing small wave 3 inside medium wave 3… so this new count is more bearish basically. It means we haven’t started small wave 3 down yet as yesterday was small wave 2 up, which means we should be starting small wave 3, inside medium wave 3, today or Monday.

For this new wave count to be right we can’t see small wave 2 up go above 4836.50, which was the high on 1/12. So… small wave 2 must end below that level so we can keep this wave count and drop next week for small wave 3 down inside medium wave 3 down. It could start today but with it being OPEX I’d lean to it being a choppy day that just “pins” the market at max pain for option traders.

Now the wave 3 next week should be at least 150 points I think… maybe even 250? I think we could reach 4600 but it might be late next week. This wave count is based on what I see with the various larger time frames on the RSI and MACD’s, as well as prior patterns that look similar to today.

Have a great weekend.