ES Morning Update January 31st 2024

A flat market yesterday, which was what I expected as the market is waiting on the FOMC today at 2pm EST. As overbought as the market is I have to remain bullish AFTER the close and into early next week. I would expect to see some wild swings shortly after the meeting but by the close it will all calm down and be a non-event.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again… the market rarely “turns” right after any FOMC meeting. History will show you that any turn happens the following week as they just don’t want to blame the Fed for anything. Usually the following week no one thinks that any turn in the market had anything to do with what the Fed say. I know it sound crazy but if you go back in time and look at the FOMC days you will see that the market hardly every turns the week of the meeting.

On another note, there was a FP on the SPY after the close Monday, which I thought would be hit yesterday, but they waited until after the close and then dropped it to hit it. They also put out a new upside FP, so that’s the target for today I suspect… at minimum.

The FOMC could be used to breakout and make a new higher high, so the upside FP might just be where they want the market to be at right before the meeting… who knows for sure.  I just know that the odds favor a green close today.

Have a blessed day.