ES Morning Update January 9th 2024

Ok, the move up yesterday was more then I expected, but it’s still a wave 2 move. I had thought we wouldn’t get a decent rally up until after we hit the 4250-4350 zone, whereas then I would be looking for 4600 or so on a strong 2-4 day rally.

I think this rally from yesterday is now going to kill that bigger rally from that lower zone when we finally get there, but that’s yet to be known. This rally up only delays the move down, which is certainly frustrating for me as it’s burning “time” on my short positions. I have different one’s going out into the end of February as I have to layer into them because of this very tricky market.

There was a good chance of a large drop on Friday but the bulls held it and now we should be taking the slower decline path, whereas we still go down to the 4250-4350 zone but it might take until the end of this month to hit it. It’s still a head scratchier to me as to “why” the market didn’t just fool everyone with a quick big drop, as now it’s going to follow technicals and decline in an easier to read move.

I was thinking it could last into Wednesday (or Thursday) but that was on a slower move up for the C wave inside the wave 2.  Now I think it exhausted itself and will end today and rollover into the rest of this week.  I do not think we have much left on the upside… if any?

Predicting in advance is very hard, but as the moves unfold I’ll get a better feel for it. Currently it’s still a wave 2 up, but if a new all time high is put in then it will be a wave 5 up from the October low. I have no way of knowing if that will happen or if it will just be a lower high for a wave 2, but my primary lean is still down with NO new all time high.

But I’ll label a chart here with the bullish wave count just in case.

I think it will be proven wrong and give it maybe a 25% chance of playing out.  It’s just too obvious for me and likely what everyone else see’s too.  Again, I think we rollover today and start the wave 3 down that should last into the end of this month and be slow to keep everyone buying the dips.

Have a blessed day.