ES Morning Update February 21st 2024

(Post wrote last night)

Yesterday the market drifted lower all day and bypassed the FOMC minutes as it didn’t have any real affect, but the earnings from Nvidia after hours causes a nice move back up like I was expecting.

Now we have to see how high this rally goes into this Friday as if we take out that 5059 and 5066 high then the lows are likely in and we will only pullback into the Sunday/Monday turn window (25th/26th) for a higher low. From there we grind higher into the March 22nd turn date to finally top out (hopefully?) before a nice 3-9% pullback. The alternative would be that if we fall to make a higher high by this Friday then I’d lean toward one more drop into this Sunday/Monday for another lower low then last weeks low from the CPI number.

I really don’t favor that happening but it could. It would have to go lower then yesterday and after the squeeze up from Nvidia yesterday after the close I really don’t put that has happening.

What I think will happen is that we grind higher and pullback small so that the coming turn date gets bypassed… meaning it doesn’t make a new high and is simply a down day, which qualifies for it being a “turn” as after that the rest of next week should be up, and I think it continues that grind all the way into the next turn date on March 22nd. The best thing the bulls can do is to “build a base” for several days… meaning “No Breakout” until after this coming Sunday/Monday passes by. Time will tell.

Have a blessed day.