ES Morning Update February 29th 2024

More chop yesterday with a drift lower. It’s getting close to the 5050 support zone now, and the RSI is working its’ way down closer to oversold. It doesn’t have to reach oversold of course as in strong up trends it doesn’t get buried below the 30 level, so a bottom is very close now.

It could happen today or it could have been yesterday, but after that I do expect a rally up next week with the target of 5146 for the short term and 5190-5225 ultimately. I’ll have to see where the technicals are once the first lower upside target is met, as that might be all we get on the coming rally before another pullback like the current one happens.

It’s hard to say until we get there first, and how long it takes to get there is important to as “time” for the strong bullish period the first week of March. If there is enough time left then we could reach the higher level, but if it takes all of next week to reach the lower target then time will run out and we should pullback again the week of OPEX prior to those higher levels being reached.

And while I want to see the March 22nd turn date produce a high that’s not known at this point as it could be a bottom? Right now though it does look possible to play out, which will either be the end of Medium Wave 3 (meaning Medium Wave 4 be the pullback, which might just be 3-5%) or the Large Wave C (or 3?), which would should result in a larger pullback, like 5-9% possibly.

Have a blessed day.