ES Morning Update February 7th 2024

As I said yesterday, this week shouldn’t be traded as it’s nothing but chop and any downside will be hard to trade and limited. Trying to figure out the tiny waves inside a likely ABC down this week is very hard. It’s just not something that should be gambled on, but instead one should just wait it out into this Friday to see how far it pulls back.

For all I know we go sideways all week.  But if it does some surprise one day drop, I do not think it will be the start of the larger degree pullback. If so, it will be bought and we’ll have one last rally up into the 13th-15th zone, and that’s where I think the best short opportunity will be at.  That could even be a higher high, I do not know?

Now if we do make a new high then the wave 5 up did not complete and we are still in it, but that doesn’t change anything really.  Next week should still top it out, and we’ll start a pullback afterwards  It will either be at a lower high or higher high but the 13th-15th is the zone to look for the market to rollover.

Whether it drops 200, 300 or 600 points I just don’t know?  Predicting the price is tough, so I’m focusing the most on the technical picture, which includes the Seasonality Chart, which gives me part of the “turn” windows… so “time” is more important then “price”.

And everything is still bullish into mid-month, so that’s part of where my window of the 13th-15th is coming from… which I think will be a top. They are just “zones” where turns can happen, and they never predict price. The important thing to focus on is to give the market the “time” is it needs to setup the bigger short and sit on your hands during the formation period.

Have a blessed day.