ES Morning Update February 8th 2024

Ok… we broke out and rallied up nicely yesterday to finally take out the 5000 level on the ES, but fell shy just 11 cents on the SPX cash. I was thinking we would pullback small in an ABC move down into this Friday but instead we just got the one pullback on Monday the 5th, which tells me now that the last wave 5 up into the 4997 ES high did not finish and is subdividing into 5 smaller waves. I posted this chart yesterday in the chatroom showing those wave counts. Here it is…

It points to mid next week for a final high of Tiny Wave 5, inside Small Wave 5, inside Medium Wave 1. Now that is still on my First Wave Count from Monday, which I re-posted on Tuesday update. At that time I assumed that Medium Wave 1 ended at the 4997 high, but that’s clearly not correct as we are extending on it.

The second half of this month is bearish, so odds are still strong that we get a pullback into the end of the month and/or into March. Next week is bullish, so everything points to a top during that period. It might still start down slowly and unfold in an ABC (Small Waves), which could go down 300 up to 600 points… it’s hard too say right now.

For the short term we are probably going to chop today and pullback tiny tomorrow. Then up again Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with Monday being unknown. Again, calling these day to day moves are tough, but I still think we will top out next week and do a good pullback over the next several weeks.

Have a blessed day.