ES Morning Update March 27th 2024

We now have closed red 3 days in a row… will today be the fourth? I doubt it as we are getting close now to the downside target of 441.00 from the fake print on the QQQ, which again is roughly around 5250 or so on the ES.

If it’s hit in the morning session then I think we put in a bottom and turn back up the rest of the day. It might just go up for some wave 1 and pullback for a wave 2 (higher low) into the close, or that pullback happens on Thursday like in the chart below…

That’s my thought on what could happen from looking at the technicals, but the other scenario is that we don’t hit it today and close green with some small bounce. Then tomorrow we drop to the FP to close out the week negative It could hit into the close Thursday to make everything look very bearish over the 3 day weekend, which if we get oversold (and we should be), I think we’ll rally hard next week with everyone short.

Of course if it’s hit today then I’ll still looking for a long as the FP’s have proven to me over the many years of following them that they work. They can still make it very bearish into the end of the week if they do hit the FP today and bottom as we could see the wave 1 up into the close and then tomorrow gets the wave 2 down that comes really close to hitting the low again. A slightly higher low or double bottom basically. That would still get everyone bearish over the weekend I think (chart below).

Now if on the other hand the bottom comes today and we rally hard both today and tomorrow then I’d worry about next week being down… an April Fools drop on the 1st maybe? For that to happen though I’d be looking for 100-150 point rally into the close on Thursday. I think one of these 3 scenario’s could happen, but I don’t know which one. That rally would need to make a new all time high of course, which should hit and pierce my FET of 5334 on the ES (chart below).

That could happen, and if it does then no one will be short going into a 3 day weekend, which opens the door for a bigger pullback next week. One way or the other a big move is coming. It should up, but I don’t know if it starts today after hitting the downside FP and then rallies up into the close tomorrow, or if the rally happens next week from closing down for the week to trap short before a big squeeze.

My lean is toward hitting it today and putting in 2 day squeeze to make a new all time high, which sets up next week for another pullback. But I’ll play whatever I’m given and will be focusing my attention on what the technicals say after the rally gets started.

Have a blessed day.