ES Morning Update April 16th 2024

Another tricky move yesterday as we did get an early rally that looked like it might be going up to the FP on the QQQ, but then it rolled over and dropped steady the rest of the day, which I thought was at first just some B wave with the C up into the FP coming today. But that didn’t happen as the market broke down in what is likely my Extra Tiny Wave 3, inside Tiny Wave 3, inside Small Wave C of Medium Wave 4.

I posted that chart on yesterdays update and it’s tracking quite well so far… except for the rally up to the FP on the QQQ of course. When it was obvious that it wasn’t going to go back up I took a small short. I hate chasing the market after it’s already dropped 50 points but since I know we are going to the FP on the SPY I knew it would be worth the risk.

I think we will hit that 483 FP by this Wednesday, so I would not look for much of a bounce today. It’s a short no matter how much it bounces and is a gift to the bears. I’ll be looking for another spot to short again today but I doubt if I get much of a bounce. When we hit (and pierce) the FP of 483 on the SPY I expect to see a rally up of 61.85 of the drop into the end of this month.

We’ll then likely pullback again for a higher low in the first or second week of May. The should be a wave 1 up and 2 down, so after that pullback I’ll expect to see a super strong wave 3 rally up for a wave 3, which should go into June and beyond probably. Although I didn’t get my ideal entry for the short I still got a small bit of it, and will really be excited to catch the long once the FP is hit.

Have a blessed day.