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ES Morning Update June 12th 2024

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Big day today the CPI and the FOMC will certainly cause some big moves in the market one way or the other. My lean is still that we have a squeeze higher first before we start a multi-week pullback, but I could be wrong of course.

We might see a drop after the CPI and then it get completely erased back up after the FOMC? Or we rally on the CPI and drop after the FOMC… really hard to know for sure. It’s just a guessing game here and the only thing to do really is just to let it play out in one direction or the other and look to take a position short (or long) based on where it goes after each event.

To me, I can’t take any longs here as upside looks limited to me… maybe a 100 points of risk there, but the downside has risk of 400+ points in my opinion. The pullback should take out the 5205 low and make a move toward the 4963 low in the coming weeks, and if my wave count is right it will stop somewhere in the middle of that zone and end Small Wave 2 down. Here’s that wave count again from 6/6 …

If I’m wrong on my wave count, meaning we take out the 4963 low (and likely go to the FP on the SPY), then I’d then think that whatever high we get this week ends Medium Wave 5 and that the pullback will then be Large Wave 4 down. It could reach the FP on the SPY for sure, which would be around 4850 or so. Then Medium Wave 5 up will take us into an August or September high of 6000+ to hit my FET hopefully. Here’s that chart below…

Have a blessed day.


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