ES Morning Update April 7th 2025

As you can probably figure out by my last few posts I’m not happy that I missed the drop. I was looking for higher prices and into Friday where the turn window was at, but it topped early on me, just like when it bottomed late on me in the past when my turn window was 3/3 to 3/6, but it bottomed on 3/13… quite frustrating.

Turn dates aren’t perfect but they still help. Other turn dates prior to those were spot on with a hit within a day or so. I guess this recent April 2nd top is a hit too as it was only 2 days off. It was just me wanting a higher price on the 4th to get the best short entry.

The next turn date is April 23rd, but the one I’m most interested in will be the early May one, which is roughly the 2nd or so. I think we will see the 2022 prior high of 4818 on the SPX get hit and pierced (4808 ES) before any low is put in, and I think we’ll see it either around the 23rd or May 2nd. Possibly we do a double bottom? Or a higher low or lower low between the dates?

The weekly chart is quite oversold now, so a massive move back up is coming, but I don’t see it until May. If we put in the low around the 23rd then I’d think the first move up will be a wave 1 of some kind, then the early May higher low will be the wave 2 down.

After that we will rally hard up into August where a new all time high (and beyond) should happen. The upside FP I have on the SPY is at 655.66 (nice 666 code huh… LOL). The current all time high is 6166.50 on the ES, another ritual of course. If we hit the one on the SPY the SPX and ES won’t have the code in them, which makes it less obvious to everyone that see’s the ES one… but it will still fulfill the satanists rituals (I guess?).

Doesn’t matter to me but it will be a target of interest when we reach August. As for the short term, we clearly were (are still?) in a wave 3 of C down last week, so the wave 4 bounce will likely happen this week. Then the wave 5 down will probably be into the 23rd or so. That’s (in my opinion) the low I’ll be interested in taking a long at… but the best long should be the low into around May 2nd, which I think will be a higher low. We shall see.

Side-note: The 483 (dual) FP’s on the SPY from last year was hit in the futures Sunday night.

What does this mean?  I don’t but possibly we don’t get any new lower low into the 23rd or the 2nd?  Maybe it turns out to be a triple bottom?  I’m just focused on getting prepared for the best long of the year, which should be around the May 2nd date.  Whatever the price level the market is at when the date comes is not something I care about.

Have a blessed day.