ES Morning Update June 16th 2025

We finally got a nice volume day on Friday as the market woke up from being asleep for weeks as news of Israel striking Iran caused a gap down that morning. While it rallied back up during the day it couldn’t hold and rolled over into the close. It’s looking very likely now that the top is in for the bigger wave 1 up from the April low. We should be starting the pullback now for the wave 2, and it’s not likely going to end tomorrow or Wednesday. It should drag out into the next turn window around the 26th or so.

On another note, last Friday I posted on X a list of all the recent intraday FP’s that have appeared on the SPY over the past 2 months. Those fake prints could be the spots where bounces come in at if we start declining more this week. That chart is below…

Assuming we don’t take out the recent top of 6074 from last week we could see the 578.43 FP hit on the SPY in the coming days. That’s roughly 5800 on the ES, and is support from the 5/23 low (5756.50) and the 200 day SMA of 58.35.70, which should logically produce a bounce from. Maybe it’s this Wednesday, which is another FOMC day. I don’t have a clue what Powell is going to say but if the market is short term oversold enough into the meeting it won’t matter if it’s positive or negative as the market will just rally from the technicals.

If we see this happen the rally should suck in all the bulls into thinking the low is in and that we are going up to new highs. I can’t blame them really as that move up will look super bullish on the chart, but the cycles don’t suggest that is going to happen. There should be chop or downward pressure into the 26th of this month, so while that doesn’t mean we have to take out the 5800 likely low it does mean we should retest it. I think it will break and we’ll get a flush out drop the the 554.13 FP or the 556.50 FP before the low is really in. That would be a nice ABC pullback for wave 2 and setup wave 3 to rally all the month of July into August for a new all time high.

And a move that low will make a beautiful right shoulder for an inverted head and shoulder pattern with the 3/1 low being the left shoulder and the 4/7 low as the head. It should get a ton of bears short too while taking out the bulls at the same time. Those bears will be fuel for the big wave 3 up into July/August.

Have an blessed day.