Special Update – The Fake Print Of 787.13 And The Decline Afterwards

Last week I discussed that the first drop after the high would hit the two FP’s around the 715 SPY zone and then bounce hard for a wave 1 up, and then a wave 2 down for a higher low into the end of the month around the election. I did that because I just don’t think they will allow an ABC drop where the C wave down hits the 600.14 FP on the SPY to end it all.

I want to cover another possible scenario where we have a lower low into the end of the month for a C wave, but in this case we hit the 692 FP on the SPY for that last move and the 715 zone FP’s are the A wave (meaning… still no crash to the 600.14 FP). There’s also another FP on the ES (super rare) showing a low of 7063.00, and it’s from June 2nd 2026 too, just like the 692 FP.   Below are both fake prints

Ironically from the expected high of 787.13 on the SPY to either the 692 FP or the 7063 ES low is about a 12% pullback, whereas the first drop to the 715 FP’s is about 9% or so. This makes the most sense to keep the market from really crashing hard (like the 600.14 FP, which would be 22%), and allow it to rally back up into the end of year to finally take out the 8000 level.

So… we have to be open to either a higher low for the second drop, as discussed last week, or a lower low, as I’m pointing out here.  I try to cover all possible scenario’s and then once we are in the move try to figure out which one is right.

This would follow the pattern from the 2000 Chart that I posted previously on my September 25th, 2026 update.  Of course it won’t follow exactly but the main point to note is that there will be two drops, not one that marks a bottom, rallies some for a wave 1 up, and then a pullback for a higher low (a wave 2) as suggested in my October 1st, 2026 update.  Below is that chart again…

The reason I’m pointing it out as possible is due to the FP’s that I have.  The two in the 715 zone are so close that I find it unlikely that the first drop won’t hit and pierce them both, therefore fulfilling them and ruling out a second drop to the same area.  Instead, the second drop must be either a higher low or a lower low.  I know everyone would love to see the 600.14 FP be the target low but I really don’t think that will be allowed.  I think they will keep the entire correction to a 10-12% decline.

So, that opens the door for the second drop to hit and pierce the 692 FP on the SPY, or just the 7063 ES FP, which is quite a bit higher then the level the SPX would be at if the 692 FP was hit.  My calculations point to the 6944-6954 level on the SPX when the SPY is in the 692 area.  On the ES that would be 50-60 points high, which is around 7000.  Now all the FP’s I’ve tracked over the past 17 years always hit and pierce by a small amount.  But this ES one is actually the first one I’ve every seen.  They are always on the SPY, QQQ, IWM, etc… (meaning the cash market), so I can’t just pick one or the other.  I have to stick with the 692 one (which could be from 692.00-692.99 as I don’t know the “cents” part), and just allow for a larger pierce on the ES since I don’t have a track record of it.

Meaning… the 7063 ES FP could hit and pierce all the way down to around 7000 on it so that the 692.00-692.99 FP on the SPY can be hit and fulfilled too.  If the market decides to follow this pattern then the first leg down (the A wave) should reach (and pierce) the 714.68 FP on the SPY so that it and the 716.58 FP are both fulfilled.  The time window for the low should be between the 10th-16th as this drop should happen very fast.

Then a strong bounce back up for the B wave that should reach at least 50% but most likely will reach 61.8% of the A wave.  On the ES the resistance on that bounce will be the 7600-7700 zone, and will be the ideal short for a possible C wave for those brave enough to risk it.  Remember that the bears will be fully awake then and I could be wrong on it making a lower low.  It might make a higher low (a wave 2) like I covered in last weeks update on October 1st, 2026.

But… assuming I right on this scenario the C wave should bottom around the election and the 692.00-692.99 FP zone on the SPY would be the target low.  If they pierce 7000 a hair on the ES (and more of course on the SPX) the bears will be fully loaded short looking for the March 30th, 2026 low to be next… but it won’t happen.  From January to March of this year the market put in many tops around the 7000 zone, which will act as major support when hit.  That will mark the bottom and from there we will see an explosive rally into the rest of the year.  We could see 8000 hit by December 31st if they get enough bears trapped, and I think they will.

To sum it all up…

I’ve covered ever pattern that I can see as “possible” over the last several weeks in different updates.  Which one will it be is the question I can’t answer, but this current one has the most FP’s lining up correctly to give the highest odds.  Not sure what to think about the 600.14 FP but predicting “when” any FP will be hit is always super hard.  This month of October has the best cycles aligned up to fulfill every FP except that one.  I’m just going to target the other FP’s for my shorts and remain flexible and will adapt if needed.  The bottom for the entire correction should still be around the end of this month and/or into the election… no matter what price level it’s at (higher low or lower low).  Once that period arrives I’ll be looking for longs ONLY!

One more thing…

This is a Wildcard but certainly possible.  If the market declines to hit the 7063 ES FP, and the 692 FP on the SPY (around 6950 SPX), on the first decline, the lows will be extremely likely to be “in” at that bottom and any second decline later in the month will be a higher low for a wave 2 as covered in my prior update.  This would be a crazy move for sure but it is possible that all the FP’s (except the 600.14 one) get hit and fulfilled on the first drop.  Needless to say I’ll be loading up super long in both short term, medium term, and long term positions as we could be at 8000 by the end of the year.

If the drop is very fast the first move back up from that low should retrace 50%-61.8% within 3-4 days.  Then it will be a chop mess until the election where the next low will appear, and should be a “higher low” then the first one.  Basically a wave 2 pullback with the wave 1 up being that first snap back rally of 50%-61.8% in the first few days.  This would setup a wave 3 to launch after the election.

For me, I will only be interested in trading the first drop to the FP’s and the first retrace rally afterwards.  Then do nothing until the election and get long for the wave 3 into January (meaning I wouldn’t trade that wave 2 pullback as it will chop you up big time).

Good luck.

Source: https://reddragonleo.com/2026/10/06/special-update-the-fake-print-of-787-13-and-the-decline-afterwards/