The Euro has survived the first major hurdle of 2017 with the Dutch election failing to reflect the anti-EU agenda on offer from the far-right leader Geert Wilders. Dutch voters turned out in their droves with over 80% turnout to support the VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy) party and give Mark Rutte the largest party. The Euro has strengthened by about half a cent as the news is confirmed removing the uncertainty and prospect of the far-right hijacking traditional European ideals. This was, by and large, the expected outcome but what now for the Euro and European politics?
Expectations for the Euro to weaken again stem from the pending French Presidential elections due in April and May. We also have the longer term prospects of Euro weakness from the German elections later in the year. In the more immediate term, however, I expect the focus to remain on more headline-grabbing events emanating from the UK and Brexit.
Economic data in the Eurozone is improving reflecting the effects of monetary policy which has so far boosted the Eurozone economy. Lower interest rates and an extensive Quantitative Easing program have all helped to lift the Eurozone economy. These troubles are now well in the past and clients buying Euros hoping for a resurgence of economic problems in the Eurozone to help them could be waiting some time.
Overall the expectation for the exchange rate to rise higher are not completely out of the question but they rest on events turning out against expectations. With 2016 presenting many opportunities by surprising the markets will 2017 be the year that reverses the grain and sees events meet the expectation?
If you have a transfer buying or selling Euros to make then making some plans in advance is a sensible move to avoid unexpected changes. The next few weeks could see excessive volatility on the GBPEUR rate, if you have a transfer to consider and would like some further information please speak to me Jonny on [email protected]. I look forward to hearing from you.
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