GBP EUR Falls after EU Summit (James Lovick)

The Euro is likely to see an uncertain period ahead of the Italian 2019 budget which will be finalised in the next couple of months. The Italian coalition government have made promises to cut taxes and increase government expenditure which is at odds with the guidelines set by the EU.
The issue for Italy is that it has a very high proportion of debt to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with public debt at around 130%.

This is the highest level in the EU with exception to Greece and the fear is that if Italy increases this level of government debt this could put Italy in a dangerous position. Should there be another financial crisis stemming from Italy this would be damaging for the EU and hence the Euro and so the political developments surrounding this budget in the coming weeks are likely to see considerable volatility for Euro exchange rates.

For GBP EUR the meeting in Salzburg between Theresa May and the other EU27 leaders did not go as well as planned and it is fair to say that the prospect of a no deal scenario is looking more likely. The pound fell against the Euro in afternoon trade yesterday after a lack of compromise from the EU side.

The Chequers plan in its current form looks difficult to see making the cut for any final deal. As negotiations were supposedly to be almost concluded in October the likelihood of a deal in my opinion is starting to look considerably more likely. As such the pound is more likely to fall in the short term as we await the next EU summit in October for further clues as to where Brexit is heading.

For more information on the Euro and how to achieve the best rates of exchange when there is a positive market movement then please feel free to contact me James at [email protected]