EURGBP Pauses at Lows with EU Inflation Next

The EURGBP exchange rate was trading 0.11% higher in early trading on Wednesday as the pair takes a pause from recent losses. The market is awaiting inflation figures from the Eurozone this morning, followed by the latest interest rate announcement from the Bank of England.

EURGBP is trading at 0.8818 and the pair should see a trend develop once investors get beyond the BoE.

European Inflation Will Determine Euro Potential

Traders will be watching the inflation release from the Eurozone today to get an idea of the potential upside in the single currency. The European Central Bank were critical of euro strength last year and saw it as the cause of deflationary pressures. The latest inflation update is set to see a bounce from 0.2% to 0.9% and that could remove the threat of currency market intervention from the ECB if inflation does pick up.

German inflation numbers last week confirmed a better-than-expected 1% reading, which was 0.3% higher than forecast. A similar beat would see the euro mount a recovery against the pound after recent losses.

Eurozone growth figures helped to support the EUR to GBP exchange rate outlook yesterday as numbers were resilient for the bloc. Improved performance in Germany and Spain, alongside a smaller contraction in France helped to support the numbers into yea-end but there are still underlying issues due to the lockdown strategy.

The French economy shrank by 1.3% in the final quarter after the country saw strict virus measures implemented.

Bank of England to Guide Market Tomorrow

Once we see the inflation from Europe today and the Bank of England rate announcement tomorrow, the EURGBP will have the information needed to set off on a defined path. The ECB has already delivered its latest thoughts on stimulus and rates, which means the BoE can provide clarity to the valuation picture.

The currency pair has broken below a key support level recently but has been unable to mount a serious rally in sterling as investors hesitate.

Sterling has gained on the country’s vaccination program with over nine million residents now receiving a first dose of the virus jab. On a percentage basis this is far ahead of Europe’s schedule and has the potential to see the UK economy opened up more quickly. Despite the vaccine hopes, the mood is still tense as the government talks of virus mutations. The latest talk is of a mutation in the UK virus, which would apparently reduce the effectiveness of vaccines.

The EUR to GBP rate has support at 0.8658 and resistance at 0.8870. The economic data should help the pair to test one of these by the end of the week. Speak to use today about the factors impacting you EURGBP exchange for the rest of this week using the form below.

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