The EURGBP exchange rate is trading higher at 0.8770 as the market awaits growth updates and trade balance data from the UK economy.
EURGBP is trading 0.19% higher, with the single currency tries to bounce from recent losses. The price action may be limited today ahead of tomorrow’s economic data.
Pound Awaits GDP and Trade Figures
Tomorrow will see the latest GDP and trade balance data for the British economy and this could move the GBP to EUR exchange rate. The GDP number will be hampered by the December lockdowns but the BoE has predicted a bounce in the second quarter and any positive reading tomorrow could push sterling through support levels.
The balance of trade numbers are likely to be impacted by the Christmas turmoil seen at ports ahead of the Brexit agreement. Around half of British companies have said that export goods have run into difficulties due to the Brexit terms with the European Union in 2021, according to a survey by the British Chambers of Commerce.
Goods exporters have been struggling to adapt to the rule changes despite having around three years to strategize over potential scenarios.
As the year goes on, the UK trade balance could be a key factor in the GBP to EUR rate. The UK’s trade deficit rose to £5 billion in November from £2.3 billion in the prior month. This was the largest monthly trade shortfall since April 2109.
Amsterdam Passes the UK in Share Trading Volumes
The Dutch capital Amsterdam has emerged as Europe’s largest share trading centre in January, which means the London has been pushed from its perch. An average of 9.2 billion euros in shares were traded per day on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange in January, which represented a fourfold increase from December, according to a Financial Times report.
The figures will be a blow for the UK but they are a very early reminder for the government that they need to keep their eye on the ball in many different areas if the country is to succeed in the post-Brexit era. Britain and the EU are currently in talks to agree a memorandum of understanding for a “new normal” in financial services relations that have been affected by Brexit.
The CEO of Barclays recently said that the country should focus on New York and Singapore in order to thrive as a financial centre. The UK may have to look closer to home in order to fend off Amsterdam and Frankfurt in the key financial trading areas.
The EURGBP has support at the 0.8685 level but the data would have to support the pound in order to see this price area tested. If you have an upcoming currency exchange, get in touch using the form below to discuss these factors and their potential impact in further detail.
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