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EURGBP Lower as Traders Weigh Up Economic Outlook

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The EURGBP exchange rate has paused at the 0.8685 level as traders decide on the outlook for the UK and European economic outlook. The next data won’t be released until tomorrow with German inflation, but the lockdown in the country should ensure that the prices remain pressured and it likely won’t be a big mover for the euro vs pound rate.

The EUR to GBP rate is trading at 0.8675 and a breakout above that level could continue to see gains in the euro with 0.8900 being the target.

US Inflation Higher but Europe Unlikely to Follow

US headline inflation figures rose to 2.6% in March, which was higher than expected and the highest level since August 2018. The core CPI reading at 1.6% was also higher than expected. The numbers come as the US leads the way on vaccines and starts to reopen its economy. The higher inflation numbers are likely to be a factor for the British economy in coming weeks as it moves to the next phase of its own reopening and after months of lockdown, retailers for example, won’t need to make any price cuts to tempt shoppers.

The irony of the higher inflation that could show up is that the most hawkish Bank of England member announced he was leaving the bank yesterday. Andy Haldane was the Chief Economist at the bank and earlier in the year he referred to an “inflationary tiger” that was set to be unleashed in the country. His comments were not in line with the other bank members and far removed from their stoic language on keeping prices contained and rates lower.

Thursday and Friday will bring the release of the latest inflation numbers for the German and European economy, but these are unlikely to follow the path of the US after a recent colling in European growth.

Europe Hit by Yet More Vaccine Woes

The European vaccine rollout was hit once more by news that the Johnson & Johnson single shot rollout would be halted due more concerns about blood clots. In the US.

The latest delay is another blow to the troubled vaccination schedule in the European Union, which has suffered from supply problems, logistics and concerns over blood clots. The EU also saw prices for Pfizer vaccines rising by 60% in contracts that it was signing for 2022-23.

The EU previously ordered 200 million doses of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, while Britain ordered 30 million doses, but has yet to authorize the jab. France was expected to receive 200,000 doses of the vaccine this week and the delay could thwart its release from the current lockdown. Spain was looking to receive 300,000 of the J&J vaccine on Wednesday, so the EU’s largest economies are seeing more woes which will impact the pace of an EU recovery.

EURGBP is currently shrugging off the vaccine news and the current level will be important to see if the pound can bounce, or if the euro can recover some of its 2021 losses.

Get in touch using the form below to discuss these factors in more detail to see how your currency exchange is likely to be impacted.

The post EURGBP Lower as Traders Weigh Up Economic Outlook appeared first on Euro Rate Forecast.


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