GBPEUR at a Crossroads Ahead of European Data

The GBPEUR exchange rate is unchanged after the release of German unemployment numbers on Thursday morning. The reading showed a slight increase in jobless claims, but markets are now focused on the inflation reading later today.

GBPEUR trades at the 1.15 level at mid-day with the data coming in the early afternoon. Tomorrow will also see updates on euro GDP, with Italy and Germany seeing estimates for the first quarter.

Health updates raise UK hopes

The deputy chief medical officer, Johnathan Van-Tam, has suggested that the UK is, “at or close to the bottom” of the pandemic. The number of positive cases in the UK are now “in very low levels” and comparable to last September. He also said that vaccines could slow any third wave, but said it was “inconceivable” that there will not be further bumps in the road. The health ministers are reliably gloomy but there is hope that the country can move out of the nightmare and continue to recover.

His statements came as Matt Hancock announced the purchase of a further 60m doses of the Pfizer vaccine to be used for booster shots later in the year.

It comes as it was announced an extra 60 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus jab have been secured for a booster vaccination programme in the autumn.

The UK has also dropped its plans for vaccine passports in pubs and restaurants, following the backlash by punters and the industry. The NHS app will be used for foreign travel however, with Grant Shapps saying that data suggests a return is possible for foreign travel.

The transport secretary said:

“In terms of vaccine certification, I can confirm we are working on an NHS application; actually it will be the NHS app that is used for people when they book appointments with the NHS and so on, to be able to show you’ve had a vaccine or you’ve had testing. I’m working internationally with partners across the world to make sure that system can be internationally recognised, as that’s the way forward.”

“I have to say that so far the data does continue to look good from a UK perspective, notwithstanding those concerns about where people might be travelling to and making sure we’re protected from the disease being reimported,” he added.

The GBP v EUR sold off with the cautious reopening and the slow move to foreign travel but is not seeing gains when the situation improves.

German jobs data disappoints

German unemployment rose slightly in April and companies moved staff to shorter working hours, data showed on Thursday. The release was another setback for Europe’s largest economy as it continues to restrict shopping, travel and social events.

The release of inflation for the country is expected to be 1.9% and we could see if a “stagflation” situation emerges in certain countries as higher prices meets economic stagnation.

The GBPEUR has an upside target of 1.18 which was the early-April peak. Strong support would be at 1.1280, but that would need euro strength.

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