EURGBP Higher Ahead of Inflation and Jobs Data

The EURGBP exchange rate was 0.10% higher on Monday as the market faces a quiet day before inflation and jobs data. Boris Johnson is expected to announce an extension to the latest lockdown, reversing the June 21^st green light.

The EUR to GBP rate is trading at 0.8590 as the euro seeks to advance to the 0.8700 resistance set in late-April to May.

Boris delay may hurt the pound ahead of data

The pound could be pressured as Boris Johnson is set to announce on Monday that the June 21st lockdown lifting will be delayed further, until July 19th.

A two-week review could see it lifted earlier but the chances of a June 21^st reopening as planned, is said to be “zero,” according to British newspapers.

Monday could be quiet for the euro versus British Pound, but the pair will see have important data releases over the next two days.

German inflation and UK employment figures will lead on Tuesday with the prices figure expected to be 2.5% compared to last month’s 2%. British jobs are expected to grow by 150k for the month as the reopening of the services sector recharged the country’s growth prospects and hiring levels.

Wednesday will then see the release of UK inflation numbers and markets are watching closely for the sign of price pressures that could force central banks to take action to defend their addiction to near-zero interest rates. Rising bond yields would hurt government budgets at a time when they are ramping up spending and stimulus.

UK consumers expected to spend £408bn in 2021

UK consumers are set to splurge their lockdown savings and spend billions into the end of the year.

Britain’s consumers are expected to spend £408bn, according to a research report from VoucherCodes.co.uk carried out by the Centre of Retail Research (CRR).

The report studied the effect of the pandemic lockdowns on the retail industry since the first lockdown came into place in March 2020, also studying how sales could recover in 2021 and 2022.

Retail spending has been boosted by the reopening of the vital services sector, with a spending boom expected in 2021 and 2022 across the whole of the country.

Government shutdowns saw the retail industry drop in 2020, with year on year (YoY) growth between 2019 and 2020 touching all-time lows of 0.3%. However, retail sales are predicted to grow by 3.5%, or £13.8bn in 2021.

London is expected to show the biggest boost in combined online and offline retail spending, with a £76bn forecast for 2021. Spending is also predicted to be the highest in London in 2022 at £80bn total sales. Overall retail sales for Britain are forecast to grow by 5% in 2022.

The EURGBP exchange rate has support above the 0.8550 level, which is the obstacle to testing the yearly lows in the pair near the 0.8470 level.

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