The EURGBP exchange rate was -0.10% lower on Wednesday as markets await tomorrow’s ECB interest rate meeting. The UK will also see the latest GDP growth figures released on Friday. Further data on Thursday will be US inflation and prices have been red hot lately, which may affect the central bank outlook for the major economies as China has also seen price rises.
The EUR to GBP rate is trading at 0.8590 on Wednesday and is looking bearish ahead of the latest data.
All eyes on ECB tomorrow
The market is waiting for the latest European Central Bank data on Thursday with ING expecting a calm day.
“We look for a fairly calm day in FX markets today, ahead of the May US CPI and the ECB meeting tomorrow,” said strategists Petr Krpata, Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. “The G10 dollar crosses should remain largely rangebound, with a calm day and the related stability on the margin favouring more cyclical FX.”
The ECB are unlikely to change their interest rate policy but may make some remarks on the timeline for removing stimulus measures.
The market is also awaiting US inflation numbers on the same day from the USA, which saw the largest move in prices since 2008 last month. Higher inflation is also being seen in China and in the other countries that are opening their economies.
The Eurozone is also set to open up further and will follow any inflation moves from the US and UK, while import prices will be higher as a result. Higher prices could also prompt hoarding, or front-loading of supplies, which would exacerbate the recent supply chain issues.
EU data fails to spark euro
Data on Tuesday saw better than expected revisions for the EU growth, tempered by weaker German ZEW economic sentiment figures.
The EU economy still contracted by -0.3% and lags behind the US and UK, so traders are not getting ahead of themselves. The German ZEW number is lower as the economy nears pre-virus growth levels and analysts pull back on expectations.
The UK economy will see the release of GDP figures for April on Friday with markets expecting a 1.5% growth figure for the month, Year-on-year growth on an annualized level is expected to soar to 27.6% compared to 1.4% in the previous month in a further sign of the havoc that lockdowns are creating in the data.
The UK government is stalling on the final reopening of the economy on June 21st due to rising virus variant cases and that will be the key issue for the British pound in the coming days once the GDP data has been seen.
The EURGBP has support above the 0.8550 level which would contain a move towards the yearly lows in the pair near the 0.8470 level.
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