EUR GBP Higher Ahead of UK Consumer Data

The EUR GBP exchange rate was higher as profit-taking in the pound continues. The UK will see the release of consumer confidence and retail sales today to close out the week. The pound failed to hold recent gains and the euro has seen a rebound over fears of rising UK virus cases as the winter approaches.

The EUR to GBP rate is trading above 0.8560 heading into today’s economic releases.

UK sees release of consumer confidence and retail sales

The euro versus the pound will have economic data in the form of consumer confidence and retail sales for the UK today.

Consumer confidence is forecast to be at -7 as it was in the previous month. Retail sales are also expected to be lower with a drop to 6% from 9.7% as the UK consumer splurge slows down from the initial economic reopening.

The UK will also see the latest government borrowing figures with a drop of 11 billion expected from the previous month as pandemic spending dips with the economic reopening.

Profit-taking has crept into the British pound with an increase in virus cases and fatalities. The UK saw 113 further fatalities and over 36,000 new cases according to government data.

The increase in cases is fuelling fears that the reopening in the UK will stall and that is eroding the edge that the UK economy had over Europe. Another UK government adviser was predicting a bleak winter with Professor Peter Openshaw saying: “We’re going into the winter with really very high levels of infection out there in the community and we just don’t really know what’s going to happen”.

UK economy is ‘well positioned for GDP growth’

The UK economy is ‘well positioned’ for economic growth according to Giles King the CEO at Mayfair Capital.

In an opinion piece for the Independent, King said: “The UK economy is projected to deliver significant GDP growth over the next five years and should find itself among the fastest growing European countries, underpinned by strong consumer spending trends.”

The article also points out that although the country has found a financial services deal with the EU to be elusive, the British economy is diverging from financial services, towards technology and other professional services.

Property is also expected to be a strong aspect with real estate yield spreads over gilts being wide, and UK property appearing under-priced compared to European markets. JLL’s Global Transparency Index said that the UK’s real estate market, which brings over £51bn in investment every year, is one of the most transparent, and that should support demand.

The latest UK figures for GDP were 4.8% and although it was 0.2% lower than the Bank of England’s forecast, it was still one of the strongest amongst the developed economies as the UK’s vaccination campaign opened the door for the economic reopening ahead of the likes of Europe.

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