The GBP EUR exchange rate dipped below the key 1.1600 level again on Friday. It will need to find a catalyst for a push higher. More bullish comments from the European Central Bank put pressure on the sterling. Traders will look to the ECB’s July meeting for the first-rate hike in the Eurozone.
The GBP to EUR opens the week trading at 1.1596 with German trade and Spanish unemployment data due on Monday.
Rabobank sees a risk of deterioration in the pound sterling
Rabobank looked to recent global developments, noting a risk of further weakness in the pound.
Analysts said that the UK slowdown is more pronounced with the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. The challenges policymakers face in the UK are among the most complicated in the developed world. While UK CPI inflation has not yet hit a peak, the labour market problems mean “that higher inflation expectations may be already entrenched” as consumer confidence plummets. More recently, measures of business sentiment fell, the bank’s analysts said.
Rabobank also worried that BoE guidance may not keep up with the hawkish Federal Reserve. The ECB are also on a path to higher rates, with a shorter timeline.
Spanish employment numbers will release on Monday. Traders will look for the effects of Ukrainian refugees. Germany saw its unemployment jump last week with the addition of refugees joining the job line.
The first activity for the pound sterling will be on Wednesday with a speech from the BoE Governor. The Bank’s Chief Economist will speak on the following day and traders will gauge the outlook for more monetary policy action on inflation.
Market will look to German trade figures for direction
Germany releases trade figures today as the country gets closer to a trade deficit.
Last month’s print was 1.3 billion euros, persisting with a steady downtrend from last July’s 18 billion euros.
The pound sterling could get a boost if the German economy slumps into a trade deficit. The country struggled over the last year with lower demand from China and a supply chain slowdown.
The European Central Bank drove against euro gains last week after taking a tougher stance on inflation rate hikes. It also pledged to keep countries in line with interventions in the bond market. The ECB only just announced their end to stimulus measures but will implement a new tool to contain the bond prices in Spain and Italy.
The ECB Chief said the emergency bond-buying tool would “contain sufficient safeguards to preserve the impetus of member states towards a sound fiscal policy”.
The central bank moves to buy bonds in weaker, peripheral countries with the proceeds from their buying of stronger countries such as Germany. The action highlights the pressure that the ECB is under to exit their previous ‘accommodative’ policy which gave heavily-indebted governments a pass.
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