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Will the Autumn Statement affect the Pound and the 2024 Election?

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Today’s Autumn Statement could see a volatile pound

Typically speaking, a budget or mini-budget does not move the pound and currency markets too much. Unless the Chancellor’s name is Kwasi Kwarteng of course.

Last year’s mini-budget saw a large move for sterling as markets became fearful of the Liz Truss administration’s economic plans.

Today is the autumn statement from a slightly more respected pair of hands, Jeremy Hunt. Of course, the Conservatives have a huge mountain to climb, trailing Labour 21% in the polls.

With the election likely to be in the Autumn of 2024, there will be one last shot next year to woo voters, but that work appears to be starting already.

It’s the economy, stupid!

Once all is said and done, voters typically vote with their back pockets. And whilst the Tories have alienated many, there is still a middle ground of voters up for grabs.

Jeremy Hunt will try to win some of them today setting out an election strategy to frame the Conservatives as economically responsible. And more likely to leave you with more of your own money.

Today we are expecting a cut in taxes on business, plus a cut in National Insurance. A rise yesterday in the national living wage is also delivered to help voters feel better off.

Elections are typically times of increased volatility and whilst the end of 2024 is the deadline for the next general election, we could see an early election called for the first half of next year too.

Historically, a Labour government has been seen as less reliable on the economy in some voters’ minds. The prospect of a huge Labour majority will be something for markets to grapple with, and try to understand how the UK’s public finances will be managed.

How will the pound react today to the Autumn Statement?

The pound could receive a small bump as investors favour the pro-growth policies, which might help the economy to grow.

One of the challenges the UK is facing is the fear of a recession next year. The Bank of England has recently given this a 50/50 chance for next year.

The pound has been on a more negative move since the summer, ever since it became apparent the UK has finished raising interest rates.

The prospect of cuts coming sooner than expected in 2024, plus the uncertainty of the election next year, are all points to consider as we map out the direction for sterling in the coming days, weeks and months.

If you have a currency exchange to consider, we can provide detailed market insight and different strategies to help manage the inherent risk in the FX markets.

Thank you for reading and please contact me to learn more.

[email protected]

The post Will the Autumn Statement affect the Pound and the 2024 Election? appeared first on Pound Sterling Forecast.


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