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Analyse Asia Podcast: Five Predictins About Asia for 2016

Friday, January 1, 2016 14:06

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From http://www.tech-thoughts.net/

In the part 2 of our year-end podcast, we build on our earlier conversation about five major events that rocked Asia in 2015 and make our predictions for 2016: (a) Consolidation of on-demand cab hailing apps, (b) Robots (like Softbank’s Pepper) target businesses before moving on to the consumer market while value flows to data / artificial intelligence, (c) Nintendo faces innovator’s dilemma, (d) Xiaomi’s expansion and (e) Facebook faces challenges in Asia.

Here are the interesting show notes and links to the discussion (with time-stamps included):

Prediction 1: Venture capital firms push for consolidation of on-demand cab hailing apps across Asia. [0:54]

Reality dawns in unicorn-world as unit economics come into focus, leading to consolidation and possible down rounds for e-commerce and on-demand taxi hailing apps .
Overheated markets become commoditized, value shifts to adjacent layer of value chain, e.g. in India, focus shifts from e-commerce to supply chain and logistics. For example, Shotang, a B2B marketplace connecting unorganized retailers to distributors (disclosure: Sameer previously led a seed investment round into this company)

Prediction 2: Robots (like Softbank’s Pepper) target businesses before moving on to the consumer market. Data and machine learning focused companies become gatekeepers. [7:39]

What is SoftBank’s go to market strategy for Pepper? Note: Pepper has debuted in China, Taiwan and Singapore.
Why are they not adopting the direct consumer approach?
Google and Baidu lead in the artificial intelligence but don’t count IBM’s Watson and Microsoft.
Machine learning algorithms are commoditized but data that feeds those algorithms becomes the most valuable component.

Prediction 3: The Nintendo-DeNA deal will see mixed results unless Nintendo resolves its innovator’s dilemma. [13:40]

Pokeman Go will be a success and spur Nintendo-DeNA to think outside the box.
Winning Strategy: Enhance free gameplay by using real-world add-ons (in Pokeman Go’s case, the Pokeman Go Plus Wearable). Later, competitive events.
Nintendo’s Innovator’s Dilemma: Are they too focused on console gaming and not thinking about mobile as its own thing?
Is Nintendo’s future in gaming similar to Disney in media content? Does owning a portfolio of gaming content IP is the way to go for gaming companies?

Prediction 4: Xiaomi’s diversification into home tech and expanding westward. Broader implications for Baidu-Alibaba-Tencent expanding globally. [17:08]

Chinese companies face a strategy tax when going global. For example, Xiaomi has to maintain two android systems, one for China and the other for the rest of the world. Reference: Episode 68 with Clay Shirky.
Xiaomi puts recent patent purchases to use and expands to Europe and US aggressively.
What are the implications on the Baidu-Alibaba-Tencent going global? For example, Alibaba’s cloud company, AliCloud and Tencent’s investment in Glu Mobile.

Prediction 5: Facebook will not be successful in Asia with a WeChat-like strategy, might make a play to acquire LINE or enter China. [19:50]

The strategy tax for Facebook to enter China.
Given China has many players from WeChat to Weibo, should Facebook even bother?
Facebook’s continued controversy with India on free basics. Reference: Episode 77 with Newley Purnell
Mark Zuckerberg’s letter to India on free basics.
The Indian community backlash and open letter against Mark Zuckerberg.

Source: Analyse Asia

Go to http://www.tech-thoughts.net/ for more analysis on the mobile industry

Source: http://www.tech-thoughts.net/2016/01/analyse-asia-podcast-five-predictins.html

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