(3/2011) Libya: No Fly Zone Or Qadhafi

Rick Francona–

(This should be read in conjunction with my earlier No-Fly Zone Libya – some considerations.)

The situation in Libya is deteriorating into a civil war. Unless Libyan leader Mu’amar al-Qadhafi relinquishes his position and accedes to the demands of the opposition, the fighting shows no signs of ending anytime soon. Such a move by al-Qadhafi is unlikely, especially now that his forces have mounted what appears to be a coordinated counteroffensive.

What appeared to be a wave of earlier opposition successes has slowed to a stalemate. As the pro-government forces now begin combined arms military operations against the opposition, the tide may actually be turning against the rebels. Untrained rebels fighting with unfamiliar light weapons are no match for tanks and aircraft operating in concert, especially in the open desert terrain of northern Libya.

Key to al-Qadhafi’s forces military operations is complete control of Libyan airspace. The opposition forces have only older anti-aircraft artillery and possibly some shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles. Both systems are limited to relatively low-altitude coverage. When these systems are manned by poorly or untrained operators, they are fairly easily avoided by fighter bombers. While the heavily armed and armored Mi-24 helicopter gunships are more vulnerable to these systems, Libyan air force pilots are making devastating strikes on rebels in the oil refinery and port city of Ra’s Lanuf to the west of Tripoli, and in Az-Zawiyah to the east of Tripoli, in each case forcing the rebels to give up hard-gotten gains.

If the Libyan air force continues these effective air strikes against the lightly defended opposition forces in combination with armored assaults, the pro-al-Qadhafi forces will likely be able to push the rebels further east to Banghazi. If Banghazi is retaken by government forces, the rebellion is over.

It may come down to this. Either the United Nations authorizes the imposition and enforcement a no-fly zone over Libya, or Mu’amar al-Qadhafi remains in power.

The most likely organization to enforce a proposed no-fly zone is NATO, of which the United States in the key member. NATO has experience conducting integrated air operations – it did so effectively in the Balkans – and member nation Italy has air bases within range of Libyan airspace. As I said in my earlier piece, if and when NATO begins these operations, the bulk of the flying will probably be done by American aircrews, including the reconnaissance, refueling and logistics sorties.

NATO’s normally timid political leadership and cumbersome military command structure may make the whole issue moot. NATO is not scheduled to meet until Thursday to even discuss enforcement of a no-fly zone, and will not consider it unless there is a United Nations Security Council resolution authorizing it. Libyan government forces are not waiting for that resolution or NATO’s decision. They will continue to mount their coordinated air strikes, helicopter attacks and armored assaults, hoping to end the rebellion before the outside world can act.

President Barack Obama has invested some political capital in the removal of Mu’amar al-Qadhadi. The President and British prime minister have both called for the removal of al-Qadhafi. Refusal to support or participate in no-fly zone imposition or enforcement negates that investment and likely ensures the survival of the regime in Tripoli.

It’s another 3:00am phone call. What’s your answer going to be, Mr. President?

Lieutenant Colonel Rick Francona is a retired U.S. Air Force intelligence officer, a veteran of the Vietnam and Persian Gulf wars, and service in the Balkans. His assignments include the National Security Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Central Intelligence Agency, with tours of duty in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, and operational duties in virtually every country in the Middle East.

During the last year of the Iran–Iraq war in 1988, Rick was assigned to the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad as a liaison officer to the Iraqi armed forces intelligence service, where he served in the field with the Iraqi army and flew with the Iraqi Air Force.  

Throughout the first Gulf War he served as the personal Arabic interpreter and advisor on Iraq to General Norman Schwarzkopf and later co-authored the report to Congress on the conduct of the war.  His is the author of  book, Ally to Adversary – An Eyewitness Account of Iraq’s Fall from Grace.

Following the Gulf War, Rick served as the first air attaché to the U.S. Embassy in Damascus, Syria until 1995.  In 1995 and 1996, Rick served in northern Iraq with the Central Intelligence Agency, where he narrowly escaped an attempt on his life by Iraqi agents.  In 1997 and 1998, he served in the Department of Defense counter terrorism branch and led a special operations team in Bosnia that captured five indicted war criminals.

From 2003 through 2008, Rick was a Middle East military analyst for NBC News.  You’ll find Lt. Col Francona online at http://francona.blogspot.com/

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