Central African Republic on the Brink of Civil War

Lucas Leiroz, research fellow in international law at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. – 23 December 2020

Political instability in Africa continues to increase and more countries are turning to Russia for help to tackle their problems. One of the poorest countries in the world, the Central African Republic recently expressed concerns about the possibility of a coup d’état and requested international help to confront opposition groups that threaten government stability. Moscow has already offered to send some military personnel to the country in order to study the national situation and teach defense tactics to local security forces. The Russian government is also ready to consider the possibility of sending regular troops on the Central African Republic’s request. Rwanda has also sent military aid to the country.

The current political crisis in the Central African Republic is due to an internal power struggle between the current government led by President Faustin Touadéra and opponents led by former President François Bozizé. The government accuses Bozizé of attempting a coup d’état which the oppositionist vehemently denies. In several regions of the country, incidents of shootings and fighting between members of the regular security forces and rebel supporters of Bozizé have been reported, but the various communication failures and the country’s chaotic situation impede concrete data on the number of victims and the real size of the conflicts.

Rwanda has offered to send troops to the Central African Republic as both countries have a cooperation agreement since Rwanda started participating in the UN humanitarian mission in the country in 2014, having one of the largest military contingents in the region. The Ministry of Defense of Rwanda stated, when announcing the sending of troops, that rebel forces led by Bozizé attacked Rwandan soldiers who are members of the UN mission, which would have motivated the government to send more troops to the country. Rwandan troops will remain in the Central African Republic at least until the new presidential elections, on 27 December, thereby helping to ensure a secure electoral process, preventing possible attacks by the rebels.

Faustin Touadéra, current president, is the favorite to win the next elections. Despite the country’s great difficulties, marked by poverty and underdevelopment, Touadéra has received popular support and is unlikely to leave office. In the 2016 elections, Touadéra obtained about 63% of the votes, which indicates a strong popular predilection. However, a scenario of uncertainty and instability can affect the functioning of the electoral process. Currently, two-thirds of the territory of the Central African Republic is controlled by armed rebel groups. In addition to the coalition led by Bozizé, dozens of other rebel militias compete for control over Central African territory, making the country one of the most unstable and insecure nations in the entire continent.

Faced with this scenario of Touadéra’s favoritism, the rebels have significantly increased their activities. The rebels will try to impede the functioning of the electoral process through physical coercion of citizens in areas under the control of anti-Touadéra militias. Bozizé and his followers have already spoken out demanding that elections be postponed until peace and security are restored across the country. But this is certainly an excuse for the elections to be postponed permanently, considering that it is Bozizé’s own supporting forces that commit the attacks and spread chaos across the country. In the end, Bozizé’s goal is to prolong the current scenario as much as possible and generate popular dissatisfaction against Touadéra due to the chaos – thus, Bozizé will present himself as the solution to this turmoil.

That is why the government has asked for international aid. The opposition to Touadéra itself supports international aid, since everyone – except Bozizé, who is not even a candidate – is interested in the functioning of the electoral process. Martin Ziguele, a candidate opposed to Touadéra, recently defended Russia’s participation in guaranteeing peace in the Central African Republic. This is a topic that has been debated for some time. The Central African Republic is part of the group of African countries that have recently tried to establish closer ties with Moscow in military matters. Negotiations between the Central African government and the Russian ambassador in Bangui, Vladimir Titorenko, started months ago and have been productive. Not only has Russia already sent hundreds of military personnel to act as security instructors for the local armed forces, but it has also sent several lots of weapons, including armored vehicles, to strengthen the country’s defense capabilities.

Historically, France is the country that most acts in such security schemes. The Central African Republic was a French territory in the past and has strong ties to Paris. But Macron apparently does not seem interested in the country and security cooperation has been virtually abolished. This led to an increase in illegal militia activities and Bagui’s search for new alliances. Russia appears to be the country most likely to occupy this role. The failure of French plans to secure peace and fight terrorism in Africa has opened up a range of possibilities for cooperation, where Moscow has gained prominence. Apparently, in the near future we may see more help from Russia in Africa as the means to prevent the spread of terrorism and the proliferation of civil wars.

Source: InfoBrics