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A Change of Leadership

Thursday, April 28, 2011 14:20

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Do you recall the time recently when copper led the metals? Then, for a while, gold was linked to the price of crude? As I’ve often stated, silver has led gold since August but that is changing, at least for a few days.

This is not meant to inspire questions like “how much gold should I own and how much silver?”. I’m just saying that gold may drive silver for the next week or so instead of the other way around.

I’m glad that silver has charged back and now sits just north of $49. I’m very glad that it isn’t $51 and making new highs like gold is. After all the talk about parabolas and blowoffs, I want to see silver crawl higher from here, not explode higher. The crawling indicates a general reluctance to get back in. It shows doubt in the fundamentals and belief in the topcallers. This is good! This shows us that silver still has a long way to run! It’s when there are no dips, when there is no reluctance and when there is no perceived risk that markets put in tops. This is clearly not the case at this time.

Now, take a look at these gold charts. Note that it didn’t drop nearly as much as silver did and had since rebounded to new highs. This is orderly and continues the pattern we identified last week

and clarified yesterday.

And here’s an updated 30-minute chart from this morning:

I have a last in the June gold of 1535 so let’s see if a new UPleg develops shortly that will take it toward 1550.

Here’s a 30-minute silver chart. Note a couple of things:

As I type, silver is already above $49 and looking to threaten the overnight highs of Sunday. I would expect some selling as it closes in on that area but we’ll see. There are millions and millions of dollars of fresh shorts that got piled on back on Monday below 48.40. Those folks are just now beginning to feel some real pain. Silver will either stall for a few days in this area and give the shorts some relief or it will rapidly accelerate higher toward $52 as the panicky shorts begin to cover. This will be great fun to watch.

The POSX is so awful and horrible that I don’t want to take time to discuss it now. I’ll make that the focus of the next update. Again, for now, watch gold. IF it can explode UP through 1540 and make a move on 1550, silver will charge back toward 49.75 things will get very interesting very fast.

Have a fun day! TF

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