Gold & Dollar on the Move to start a Groove

Stephan Bogner
February 3, 2012

Between 1980 and 2000, the gold price movement was dominated by the blue triangle (see chart below), whereas a so-called BREAKOUT had already started in 1993 when breaking above the upper-most blue triangle leg at approx. $350 per ounce. For the next six years until 2000, the price did a so-called PULLBACK, which went all the way to the apex of the blue triangle at approx. $250. Thereafter, the so-called THRUST occurred, which is the final movement of a triangular price formation. This thrust to the upside is active ever since as moving healthily along the long-term green upward-channel. Additionally, it is valued strongly bullish when the price succeeds in breaking above the upper-most (green) trend-channel as thereafter, a new mid-termed strong upward-trend is typical.

After the successful breakout above the green (and violet) resistance at approximately $1,300 per ounce in late 2009 to $1,900 in 2011, the price most recently completed a classical pullback to the upper-most green trend-channel at approximately $1,550 – in order to test and confirm this year-long resistance as new long-term support. A sell-signal is not given until breaching this support – hence, a strong and long-termed buy-signal is active at the very moment respectively since holding at the supportive green-violet intersection at approximately $1,550 per ounce.

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