Remember, Remember, Gold in September

SOURCE:[Frank Holmes] – Gold BullionIn American poet W. S. Merwin’s poem “To the Light of September,” the speaker calls the ninth month “still summer,” yet with a “glint of bronze in the chill mornings.”

I agree—to an extent. Here in San Antonio, Texas, home of U.S. Global Investors, we’re most definitely still in the summer season. But in the investing world, when we talk about September, there’s a glint not of bronze but another precious metal: gold.

That’s because September is historically gold’s best-performing month of the year, returning 2.16 percent on average since 1969.

September is Historically the Best Month for Gold
click to enlarge

I invite you to compare the chart above, updated to reflect the most recent monthly returns, to the one published this time last year.

September is gold month – U.S. Global InvestorsDrivers of Gold
There are several seasonal factors that explain why gold glitters a little more brightly in September. The most notable reason is what I call the Love Trade. In India, this month marks some of the most spirited gold-buying in anticipation of Diwali, which falls on October 23 this year. Following closely behind is the Indian wedding season, when gold is purchased for the bridal trousseau and as gifts in jewelry form. And September is normally when retailers restock their wares ahead of Christmas and after the Islamic month of Ramadan, at the end of which gold jewelry is commonly exchanged.

Another explanation might also be the inverse relationship between bullion and stocks, which only becomes more apparent in September. Earlier this week I discussed how September is historically the worst month of the year to trade stocks in. It’s very possible that many investors turn to gold in September, knowing that the month’s stock returns are typically poor.

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