Gold and Silver Current Thoughts 6-7-2015
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Gold fell in the U.S. on Friday hitting a 7 week low and fitting in with my overall view of the low from November 5th, 2014 being taken out. This also means I see the mining stocks hitting lower lows.
The data that comes out this week will be what might move gold from a micro level, but the dollar still seems to be the key to gold’s direction. The dollar bounced on Friday and that send gold down. Because I am still dollar bullish, I still, after a few years now, say that gold will experience some rocky roads until it bottoms out. But I also think we get a point in time where gold and the dollar rise together. This may be hard for some to understand, but I have my reasoning and will explain it once my new book, “Illusions of Wealth” is released. I am working hard on it at present. It really should wake a few people up or at least help investors navigate the financial waters with more awareness.
Interest rates have also shot up a bit and while some may say this is bad for gold, I actually think the Fed is somewhat worried about the spike up when the data doesn’t back this move higher, except for of course the unemployment reports coming in with good numbers. While the “official” rate that CNBC touts and the Fed speaks of has fallen to 5.5%, the U-6 rate is still double digits at 10.8%.
This is the number that I follow but it is ignored by the financial media. Why is it ignored? Because they want you to invest in stocks as it keeps paying their bills. Why would they tell you negative news and have you pull out of stocks?
When we see this number move higher, that could very well be the end of the stock market run. While we may get a pullback for the short term, I do think the stock market has one more higher high ahead and this could coincide with the final smack down in gold I have been writing about. This is of course my selfish ideal situation as I want my book released right before this occurs.
Here is the upcoming data for the week. Because we have so many foreign readers I have decided to add more data than U.S. only data. It also is market moving and investors should be aware of it.
Time | Cur. | Event | Forecast | Previous | |
Sunday, June 07 | |||||
19:50 | JPY | Adjusted Current Account | 1.45T | 2.07T | |
19:50 | JPY | GDP (QoQ) | 0.7% | 0.6% | |
19:50 | JPY | Current Account n.s.a. | 1.696T | 2.795T | |
19:50 | JPY | GDP (YoY) | 2.7% | 2.4% | |
22:10 | CNY | Trade Balance | 44.95B | 34.13B | |
22:10 | CNY | Exports (YoY) | -5.0% | -6.4% | |
22:10 | CNY | Imports (YoY) | -10.7% | -16.2% | |
Monday, June 08 | |||||
Holiday | Australia – Queen’s Birthday | ||||
01:30 | EUR | Investing.com EUR/USD Index | 23.0% | ||
01:30 | GBP | Investing.com GBP/USD Index | 38.9% | ||
01:30 | CAD | Investing.com USD/CAD Index | 42.7% | ||
01:30 | JPY | Investing.com USD/JPY Index | 61.9% | ||
01:30 | AUD | Investing.com AUD/USD Index | 49.4% | ||
01:30 | NZD | Investing.com NZD/USD Index | 48.3% | ||
01:30 | CHF | Investing.com USD/CHF Index | 44.9% | ||
01:30 | USD | Investing.com Gold Index | 54.0% | ||
01:30 | USD | Investing.com S&P 500 Index | 25.8% | ||
02:00 | EUR | German Industrial Production (MoM) | 0.5% | -0.5% | |
02:00 | EUR | German Trade Balance | 19.4B | 19.3B | |
08:15 | CAD | Housing Starts | 185.0K | 181.8K | |
08:30 | CAD | Building Permits (MoM) | 3.4% | 11.6% | |
19:01 | GBP | BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) | 1.0% | -2.4% | |
21:30 | AUD | Home Loans (MoM) | -2.0% | 1.6% | |
21:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence | 3 | ||
21:30 | CNY | CPI (YoY) | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
21:30 | CNY | PPI (YoY) | -4.5% | -4.6% | |
21:30 | CNY | CPI (MoM) | 0.0% | -0.2% | |
Tuesday, June 09 | |||||
01:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate s.a. | 3.3% | 3.3% | |
01:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate n.s.a. | 3.3% | 3.3% | |
03:15 | CHF | CPI (MoM) | 0.1% | -0.2% | |
04:30 | GBP | Trade Balance | -9.85B | -10.12B | |
04:30 | GBP | Trade Balance Non-EU | -3.00B | -3.16B | |
05:00 | EUR | GDP (QoQ)P | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
05:00 | EUR | GDP (YoY)P | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
10:00 | USD | JOLTs Job Openings | 5.030M | 4.994M | |
16:30 | USD | API Weekly Crude Stock | 1.800M | ||
20:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 6.4% | ||
22:50 | AUD | RBA Governor Stevens Speaks | |||
Wednesday, June 10 | |||||
04:30 | GBP | Industrial Production (MoM) | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
04:30 | GBP | Manufacturing Production (MoM) | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
10:00 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate | 0.4% | ||
10:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.948M | ||
13:00 | USD | 10-Year Note Auction | 2.237% | ||
14:00 | USD | Federal Budget Balance | -97.5B | 157.0B | |
16:00 | GBP | BoE Gov Carney Speaks | |||
17:00 | NZD | Interest Rate Decision | 3.50% | 3.50% | |
17:00 | NZD | RBNZ Rate Statement | |||
17:00 | NZD | RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement | |||
17:05 | NZD | RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks | |||
19:01 | GBP | RICS House Price Balance | 35% | 33% | |
19:50 | JPY | BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions | 3.2 | 2.4 | |
21:30 | AUD | Employment Change | 11.0K | -2.9K | |
21:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate | 6.2% | 6.2% | |
21:30 | AUD | Full Employment Change | -21.9K | ||
Thursday, June 11 | |||||
01:30 | EUR | French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
01:30 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) | 12.0% | 12.0% | |
01:30 | CNY | Industrial Production (YoY) | 6.0% | 5.9% | |
02:45 | EUR | French CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
02:45 | EUR | French HICP (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
08:30 | USD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) | 0.7% | 0.1% | |
08:30 | USD | Import Price Index (MoM) | 0.8% | -0.3% | |
08:30 | CAD | New Housing Price Index (MoM) | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
08:30 | USD | Retail Sales (MoM) | 1.1% | 0.0% | |
08:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims | 277K | 276K | |
08:30 | USD | Export Price Index (MoM) | 0.2% | -0.7% | |
10:00 | USD | Business Inventories (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
11:15 | CAD | BoC Gov Poloz Speaks | |||
18:30 | NZD | Business NZ PMI | 51.8 | ||
Friday, June 12 | |||||
00:30 | JPY | Industrial Production (MoM) | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
00:30 | JPY | Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) | 0.4% | -1.0% | |
03:00 | EUR | Spanish CPI (YoY) | -0.2% | -0.6% | |
03:00 | EUR | Spanish HICP (YoY) | -0.3% | -0.3% | |
04:00 | CNY | New Loans | 860.0B | 707.9B | |
05:00 | EUR | Industrial Production (MoM) | 0.3% | -0.3% | |
08:30 | USD | Core PPI (MoM) | 0.1% | -0.2% | |
08:30 | USD | PPI (MoM) | 0.4% | -0.4% | |
10:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer SentimentP | 91.5 | 90.7 | |
10:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer ExpectationsP | 85.0 | 84.2 | |
15:30 | EUR | CFTC EUR speculative net positions | -165.5K | ||
15:30 | GBP | CFTC GBP spe |
Source: http://buygoldandsilversafely.com/current-thoughts/gold-and-silver-current-thoughts-6-7-2015/
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