A Cloud Hangs Over the Oil Sector
acting-man.com / Pater Tenebrarum / May 10, 2017
Endangered Recovery
As we noted in a recent corporate debt update on occasion of the troubles Neiman-Marcus finds itself in (see “Cracks in Ponzi Finance Land”), problems are set to emerge among high-yield borrowers in the US retail sector this year. This happens just as similar problems among low-rated borrowers in the oil sector were mitigated by the rally in oil prices since early 2016. The recovery in the oil sector seems increasingly endangered though.
Here is a chart we have frequently shown in the past, which illustrates the y/y change rate in commercial & industrial loan charge-offs plus delinquencies in comparison to junk bond yields (the federal funds rate is added for good measure):
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Source: http://silveristhenew.com/2017/05/10/a-cloud-hangs-over-the-oil-sector/
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