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Gold Miner Pulse 2019 half year update

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With graphs last updated on Jun 28, 2019
The focus of this blog article is on the gold and silver miners from a tactical point of view: how do PM miners perform relative to the price of gold or silver.

The blog article is monitoring whether trends are persisting. Therefore the graphs posted here are showing daily observations both over one year and with a 6 months time horizon. For the long term reference frame, see the articles referenced at the bottom.


Unhedged Gold miners relative to Gold bullion
Gold was last breaking above $1300 only by May 31st. The yellow metal rapidly breached the $1360 four-year old resistance and broke above $1400 on June 21. On June 25 the Comex close at $1423 marks the current rally top. Gold is consolidating above $1400 to end the first half of 2019 at $1408.9. The initial rally again spurred enthusiasm for the miners, however sentiment soon turned quite meek. Only gold breaking above its 4 year trading range was lifting the HUI/Gold ratio breaking its late March high.

Unhedged Gold Miners index HUI relative to gold bullion (spot market). Daily observations over 6 months - Click to enlarge



How we got there:

The last longer term review has been posted end December 2018: Precious metals mining in 2018: a dark cloud with a silver lining & 2019 outlook .

Persevering weakness of the gold price, plunging below $1200 by mid August, wore out miner optimism. Technicians didn’t enjoy the inverted head & shoulders pattern very long. Late October, miners plunged, despite precious metals keeping firm.

Gold rallying to $1247 early December made miners advance substantially. Though the trend quickly reversed upon little gold weakness. The on-off game continued into 2019 with the HUI/Gold ratio unable to lock in a meaningful advance.

By January 25 gold broke above $1300 which made HUI/Gold regain its 50 dma and gold firming to $1320 by end Jan 2019 ultimately caused HUI/Gold to reach its declining 200 dma. The Chinese new year rally lifted HUI/Gold above its 200 dma. It seems ages ago we last enjoyed this situation.  While gold kept flirting with the $1300 price tag, HUI/Gold was trending higher. Thereafter everything was on the brink again. A recovery started off  on May 31st with gold rallying.

The HUI/Gold regression (previously also called ‘bear market logic’): a linear but non-proportional relationship between HUI and Gold puts HUI/Gold (or for that purpose Gold/XAU) as valuation parameter in a different perspective. The HUI index has been calculated since 1996.


Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) relative to silver bullion


Global-X Silver Miners ETF, SIL relative to silver bullion; Daily observations over 6 months. Click to enlarge
SIL/Silver only turned up as the metal resumed its uptrend finally breaking above $16/oz by Jan 31, 2019. Silver pausing its recovery raised some doubt, yet SIL/silver broke above its 200 dma. With the metal oscillating around $15/Oz, the SIL/silver ratio curbed and then broke down again. Silver sliding further wasn’t any help. As precious metals started firming on May 31st, miners rallied. However silver miner enthusiasm remained subdued while the metal kept struggling to break above $15/Oz. Silver reluctantly following the gold rally is raising hope again.

How we got there:

The last longer term review has been posted end December 2018: Precious metals mining in 2018: a dark cloud with a silver lining & 2019 outlook .

In the first half year of 2018, silver miners reacted adversely to the silver price trend. Initially silver miners had shown some resilience despite metal weakness. Yet they didn’t benefit from the early October silver recovery either. With the metal lingering on below $15/Oz, silver miners lost their edge. The mid December advance is mainly reflected the rally of streamer Wheaton Precious Metals. The SIL/Silver ratio turned south again, though silver broke above $15/oz.


Canadian Gold and Silver Mining indices

How gold miners are performing is shown by the capitalization weighed gold miners index of stocks included in the Gold Miner Pulse database (yellow diamond symbols). Note that most quotes are in CAD, which has been fluctuating to the USD. The blue graph shows the GMP silver miners index. It has been losing its edge lately.The long term depreciation of the loonie mitigated the miner loss during gold miner bear market.


GMP list based (and capitalisation weighed) gold (yellow dots), silver (blue) and equal weight (red) miners indices. Reference 1000 on Nov 19, 2010  (click to enlarge)

The third index added uses equal initial weights of all (silver and gold) miners from the GMP database. Because of its simple weighting scheme, comparing this index to the capitalization weighted indices gives a fair idea of how junior miners and explorers fare as compared to the large miners.
How we got so deep into trouble is best illustrated when showing a long term graph of those capitalization weighted miners indices. The revival after late Jan 2016 healed the last leg down of the miner bear market. We briefly topped the May 2013-Oct 2014 trading range.


Long term graph of the GMP list based (and capitalisation weighed) gold (black), silver (blue) and equal weight (red) miners indices. Reference 1000 on Nov 19, 2010. – Data till Dec 29, 2017 (click to enlarge)


The silver miners index rose till 1400 in April 2011, peaking three weeks earlier than did the silver price. The silver miners index also posted a higher maximum during both the March 2014 and June to early August recovery than it did in the August 2013 recovery. The gold miners index and the equal weight index did not peak higher at any of the failing 2014-15 recoveries than they did in August 2013. By January 2016 silver miners nearly completely lost their edge relative to gold miners, yet the recovery proved more vigorous. The below long term graph covers over three years: the end of the bear market with miners bottoming by Dec 2015, the 2016 boom-bust over the tedious months early 2018, with miners unable to match gold strengthening. Miner quotes were jittery after gold plunged below $1200. Towards end 2018 gold strengthened to $1280 with miners recovering timidly.


Mid/Long term graph of the GMP list based (and capitalisation weighed) gold (black), silver (blue) and equal weight (red) miners indices. Reference 1000 on Nov 19, 2010. – Data till Jun 21, 2019 (click to enlarge)

Performance graph

There is an important performance disparity among the gold and silver miners of the GMP database. Too many laggards seem moribund. The median (or middle) miner (with an equal number better and worse) is losing 61.1%: almost tripling is needed to break even. The average loss posts at 34.8% as the performance distribution is slanted towards the (few) high gains.


GMP Miners sorted by loss to gain since inception on Nov 19, 2010. Click to enlarge

There are 11 miners/explorers losing 90% or more, with 4 thereof down over 95%. At the opposite side only 14 miners are quoting above their Nov 2010 mark, led by Kirkland Lake; 7 stocks have doubled. These top 7 miners are omitted in the above graph to avoid scale expansion, but you find the top-10 in full detail below:


GMP elite miners, sorted by gain since starting observations in Nov 2010 using a logarithmic view with minor ticks 10% apart in the bottom decade and 100% apart in the next decade - Click to enlarge
A more detailed analysis including list composition changes, is found on the page “miners performance“. The miners included in the database are classified in five performance quintiles. This allows evaluating how individual miners went down with the herd… or withstood the tempest.

Related blog articles
Several more detailed articles focusing on the longer term have been published. These are using the same approach as this blog page and still are a good read to grasp the historic perspective:
  1. Miners relative to precious metals: a tactical approach; (July 2, 2012)
  2. Miners relative to precious metals: An update on 2012;  (Jan 13, 2013)
  3. Anatomy of a gold miner bear market (Dec 30, 2013)
  4. Three year slide of precious metal miners (Dec 31, 2014)
  5. Gold miner bear market starting its fifth year (Jan 3, 2016)
  6. Precious metal miners relative to metal prices (Dec 31, 2016)

During 2011-15 and even over the long haul, the relative performance of mining majors to the precious metals they produce was disappointing for major gold miners, even while the metals were in a solid uptrend.  See: Gold miners: three decades for naught or Decades of underperformance

Remarkably, during the gold miner bear market and it subsequent recoveries till summer 2017 the HUI – gold relationship followed a linear regression. Thereby the HUI slides dis-proportionally during any gold decline, but also shows the expected leverage at a gold advance. See for example:
Linear Regression between the Gold Price and the HUI miners index (April 2017)
In 2018 it became obvious that the HUI once more started lagging this observed relationship.

While these blog articles had a time perspective covering years or decades, the present blog page is monitoring whether the trends observed are persisting. Therefore the graphs posted here are showing daily observations year-to-date or with a 6 months time horizon.

Last update on June 28, 2019
Next update planned on July 19, 2019

The ‘gold miner pulse‘ page provides a fundamental view of how miners are valued in relation to precious metals. Indexes are calculated on miners of the gold miner pulse database and a performance dispersion graph gives a fair idea on how differently those miners performed. This Miners’ Performance page indicates the individual performance of all miners in the GMP database.

Reference date

Miner performance calculated is relative to the start of the calculation of the GMP based gold miners and silver miners index on Nov 19, 2010. For your information: gold closed at US$1342/oz and silver at US$27.07/oz on that day.

Bear market damage

With hindsight: from early 2011 onward miners started lagging precious metals in their ascent to all time highs. The harsh miner bear market decimated the majority of explorers. Acquisitions continued, but hefty premiums no longer were paid. There have been some bankruptcies among miners and some more delisting of explorers running low on cash and assets. You find an overview of list compositions changes at the end.

Today’s statistics

Today the median loss for the miners in the database stands at 61.06%, while the average loss is 34.76%. The median is the value observed in the middle of the distribution.

Over the long haul, 11 miners are down 90% or more with 4 thereof down over 95%.   
Only 14 miners are up since Nov 2010, led by Kirkland Lake. The top 7 have doubled.

Since previous evaluation on Jun 14, 2019 the median added 1.68% while the average sweetened by 3.73%.

Advances (69 miners) led declines (18) on consecutive evaluations. The remainder of the set of miners (7) quotes almost flat: within a narrow +1% range.


Exchange rate

Most quotes are in CAD and likewise all performance graphs illustrate the return in CAD.
B2 Gold (BTG), Barrick (GOLD), Hecla Silver (HL), Coeur d’Alène (CDE) , Newmont Mining (NEM) and Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) quote in USD. Their performance has been compensated for the long term depreciation of the loonie.


Redesign
A few list components didn’t quote daily any longer. Without any exception these were penny stocks, valued below CAD 0.10. Their market capitalization was below 10 M CAD. Not surprisingly, these stocks were down over 90%. Following explorers or miners have been excluded:  Atlanta Gold (ATG), TVI Pacific (TVI), CMC metals (CMB), Miranda Gold (MAD), Black Dragon Gold (BDG), Lincoln Mining Group (LMG), Eco Oro Min (EON) and Golden Queen Min (GQM). 

Latest / Expected list changes

Newmont and Goldcorp have merged, with Goldcorp shareholders obtaining 0.328 Newmont shares for each Goldcorp share + $0.02.
Barrick made a hostile bid on Newmont below market price. It made little chance. What eventually results is a joint operation of their Nevada mines.


Graphs section

Individual miner performance since Nov 19, 2010. Miners are identified by their TSX trading symbols.

Click any of the graphs to view them at true size




Elite miners on a log axis (10% increments on the first decade and 100% increments on the second)



Top quintile: the best 20% of miners

Subtop: the average decline is amid this quintile

Midrange quintile: by definition you find the median in this quintile

Laggards quintile

Investors nightmare: a majority of these miners & explorers is down over 90%.



For your information: below is the top quintile graph of Jun 14.


Top quintile: the best 20% of miners

Comments and composition changes since 2018:

  • Alio Gold (ALO) replaces Rye Patch Gold (RPM) upon a business combination of both.  ALO ‘inherits’ the track record of RPM.
  • Primero has been delisted after its acquisition by First Majestic.
  • Klondex was acquired by Hecla Mining. Coverage is discontinued and Klondex has been delisted.
  • After a friendly take-over bid of the Australian South32 miner on Arizona Mining (AZ), this top performer eventually left the selection.
  • We introduced Gold Standard Ventures (GSV) to our list in replacement of AZ mining.
  • After the bankruptcy of Red Eagle Mining (R), Teranga Gold Corporation (TGZ) was added in replacement.
  • Upon the merger of Barrick and Randgold, the more appealing Randgold ticker GOLD was maintained, whereas the merged mining company is called Barrick. The ticker ABX is removed and the reference share price is divided by the 6.128 Randgold share exchange value. Randgold shareholders thereby obtain 33% of the new Barrick.
  • Nighthawk (NH.TO) has been added to the list.
  • Atlanta Gold (ATG), TVI Pacific (TVI) and CMC metals (CMB), Black Dragon Gold (BDG.V),  Lincoln Mining Corp (LMG) and Miranda Gold (MAD) were dropped from the list. These explorers don’t quote daily any longer. They have become hard to trade as market cap dwindled to a few million CAD.
  • Subsequently also Black Dragon Gold (BDG), Lincoln Mining Group (LMG), Eco Oro Min (EON) and Golden Queen Min (GQM) were dropped in March 2019.
  • Tahoe Resources was acquired by Pan American Silver (PAAS) as of Feb 22, 2019
  • Several replacements have been added to the list after mergers and de-listings. Those are Golden Arrow Gold (GRG) on the Toronto venture exchange, Alacer Gold (ASR), Belo Sun Mining (BSX), Marathon Gold (MOZ), Midas Gold (MAX) and Roxgold (ROXG) on TSX. Newmont (NEM) – NYSE in USD were also added. Subsequent additions were ASA Gold & Precious Metals (ASA), Evrim Resources (EVM) and Victoria Gold (VIT)
  • Newmont (NEM) has completed the acquisition of Goldcorp (G on TSX and GG on US markets)
  • A few name changes:
  1.   Novacopper (NCQ) now is called Trilogy metals (TMQ)
  2.   Astur Gold (AST) changed to Black Dragon Gold (BDG)
  3.   Pilot Gold (PLG) changed to Liberty Gold (LGD)
  4.   Silver Wheaton (SLW) changed its name to Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)
  5.   Silver Standard Resources changed to SSR Mining with ticker SSRM
  • And ticker changes:
  1.   Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI) changed its TSX ticker to KL
  2.   Red Eagle Gold changed over to the main market. Its TSX ticker now is R.
  3.   Pan American Silver changed its TSX ticker to PAAS (in line with that on US markets)
  4.   Golden Minerals changed its TSX ticker to AUMN (also in line with that on US markets)
The complete cumulative list of acquisitions or delistings since end 2010 (included below) is quite impressive.
Former mining or exploration company

TSX ticker

Date

Merging or acquiring miner or explorer / Delisted(red)
or follow up suspended (dark red)

Capital Gold Corp.

CGC

8/04/2011

Acquired by Gammon

Fronteer Gold Inc.

FRG

8/04/2011

Acquired by Newmont

Richfield Ventures

RVC

1/06/2011

Acquired by NewGold

ECU Silver Mining Inc.

ECU

8/10/2011

Acquired by Golden Minerals Cy.

Century Mining Corporation

CMM

14/10/2011

Merged with White Tiger Res.

Trade Winds Ventures Inc.

TWD

30/11/2011

Acquired by Detour Gold

Silvermex Resources Inc.

SLX

29/06/2012

Acquired by First Majestic

Trelawney Mining and Exploration

TRR

22/06/2012

Acquired by Iamgold

Extorre Gold Mines Limited

XG

24/08/2012

Acquired by Yamana

Great Basin Gold

GBG

19/09/2012

Delisted upon bankruptcy

Queenston Mining Inc

QMI

29/11/2012

Acquired by Osisko

High River Gold Mines Ltd.

HRG

14/03/2013

Merger with Nord Gold

Orko Silver Corp.

OK

15/04/2013

Acquired by Coeur d’Alène

Esperanza Silver Corporation

EPZ

30/08/2013

Acquired by Alamos Gold

Plato Gold Corp.

PGC

31/07/2013

Sold its Quebec gold resource to Monarques

Pacific Rim Mining Corp.

PMU

29/11/2013

Acquired by OceanaGold

American Bonanza Gold Corp.

BZA

7/07/2014

Acquired by Kerr Minerals, which will been absorbed by San Gold

Osisko Mining Corporation

OSK

16/06/2014

Acquired by Agnico Eagle and Yamana

San Gold Corporation

SGR

22/12/2014

Delisted after not meeting TSX requirements

U.S. Silver Corporation

USA

31/12/2014

Taken over by Scorpio Mining (SPM.TO)

Rio Alto Mining Limited

RIO

7/04/2015

Taken over by Tahoe Res.

Paramount Gold and Silver Corp.

PZG

17/04/2015

Taken over by Coeur d’Alène

AuRico Gold Inc. (Formerly Gammon)

AUQ

3/07/2015

Merger with Alamos Gold

Revett Minerals Inc.

RVM

17/06/2015

Taken over by Hecla Silver

Tyhee Development Corp.

TDC

3/06/2015

Delisted after not meeting TSX requirements

Sunward Resources

SWD

19/06/2015

Acquired by NovaCopper

Crocodile Gold Corp.

CRK

13/07/2015

Merged with Newmarket Gold (new ticker: NGI)

SilverCrest Mines Inc.

SVL

7/10/2015

Acquired by First Majestic Silver

Temex Resources Corp.

TME

21/09/2015

Acquired by Lake Shore Gold

Arian Silver Corporation

AGQ

1/12/2015

Delisted (only London and pink sheets)

Niogold Mining Corp.

NOX

10/03/2016

Acquired by OBAN Mining Corp / Osisko 2.0

Lake Shore Gold

LSG

7/04/2016

Acquired by Tahoe Resources

Claude Resources Inc.

CRJ

26/05/2016

Acquired by Silver Standard

AM Gold Inc.

AMG

26/08/2016

Sold its exploration/development target

Mines Management Inc.

MGT

13/09/2016

Acquired by Hecla mines

Rubicon Minerals Corporation

RMX

19/10/2016

Delisted after reducing gold reserves

Agave Silver Ltd (Cream Minerals)

AGV

19/12/2016

Sold its mineral rights in Mexico

Kiska Metals Corporation

KSK

7/03/2017

Acquired by Aurico Metals

Mariana Resources

MARL

23/06/2017

Acquired by Sandstorm

Crazy Horse Resources Inc.

CZH

6/06/2017

Renamed to Rockwealth Resources and 10:1 consolidation

Integra Gold

ICG

17/07/2017

Acquired by Eldorado Gold

Exeter Resource Corp.

XRC

8/08/2017

Acquired by Goldcorp

Primero Mining Corp.

P

11/05/2018

Acquired by  by First Majestic Mining, sold its Canadian mine to McEwen Mining

Klondex Mines Ltd.

KDX

19/06/2018

Acquired by Hecla Mining

Rye Patch Gold Corp.

RPM

30/05/2018

Business combination with Alio Gold

Arizona Mining

AZ

10/08/2018

Friendly Acquired by South32

Red Eagle Mining Corp.

R

9/11/2018

Defaulted after guarantee for restructuring financing failed

Barrick Gold

ABX

2/01/2019

Merger with Randgold to form new Barrick; ticker GOLD

Randgold
GOLD

2/01/2019

Merger with Barrick; ticker maintained

The majority of the Canadian ticker symbols quote at the TSX. A few quote at the TSXV (the less regulated Venture exchange). These companies are intrinsically more risky, especially if a miner or explorer gets demoted from TSX to TSXV. One such example is TVI Pacific.

The quote list: If the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) symbols are less familiar, you find the mining or exploration company name next to the TSX symbol in the below list, former names are indicated between brackets:


Quote

Name

Quote

Name

AEM

Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited

K

Kinross Gold Corporation

AGI

Alamos Gold Inc

KL

Kirkland Lake Gold

AKG

Asanko Gold

LGD

Liberty Gold Inc (Pilot Gold)

ALO

Alio Gold

LME

Laurion Mineral Exploration

AMM

Almaden Minerals Ltd.

LYD

Lydian International Limited

AR

Argonaut Gold

MAG

MAG Silver Corp.

ASA

ASA Gold & Precious Metals

MAX

Midas Gold Corp.

ASM

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.

MOZ

Marathon Gold Corp.

ASR

Alacer Gold Corp.

MQR

Monarques Resources

AUG

Auryn Resources

MRZ

Mirasol Resources

AUMN

Golden Minerals Company

MSV

Minco Silver Corporation

AXR

Alexco Resource Corp.

MTB

Mountain Boy Minerals Ltd.

AZX

Alexandria Minerals Corp.

MUX

McEwen Mining Inc.

BCM

Bear Creek Mining Corporation

NDM

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd.

BSX

Belo Sun Mining Corp.

NEM

Newmont Mining

BTG

B2 Gold

NG

NovaGold Resources Inc.

CDB

Cordoba Minerals

NGD

New Gold Inc.

CDE

Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp.

NGQ

NGEx Resources Inc.

CG

Centerra gold

NHK

Nighthawk Gold Corp.

CKG

Chesapeake Gold Corp.

OSK

Osisko Mining Inc.

CUU

Copper Fox Metals Inc

OGC

Oceana Gold

DGC

Detour Gold Corporation

OR

Osisko Gold Royalties

DPM*

Dundee Precious Metals Inc.

ORA

Aura Minerals Inc.

EDR

Endeavour Silver Corp.

PAAS

Pan American Silver Corp.

EDV

Endeavour Mining Corp.

PG

Premier Gold Mines Ltd.

ELD

Eldorado Gold Corporation

PVG

Pretium Resources Inc.

EMX

Eurasian Minerals Inc.

ROXG

Roxgold

ER

Eastmain Resources Inc.

RRI

Riverside Resources

EVM

Evrim Resources Corp.

SBB

Sabina Gold & Silver Corporation

EXN

Excellon Resources

SEA

Seabridge Gold Inc.

FR

First Majestic Silver Corp.

SGN

Scorpio Gold Corporation

FVI

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.

SMF

Semafo Inc.

GAL

Galantas Gold Corporation

SPA

Spanish Mountain Gold Ltd.

GBU

Gabriel Resources Ltd.

SSL

Sandstorm Gold

GCM*

Gran Colombia Gold Corp

SSRM

Silver Standard Resources Inc.

GOLD

Barrick-Randgold

SVM

Silvercorp Metals Inc.

GPG

Grande Portage Res.

TGZ

Teranga Gold Corporation

GPR

Great Panther Silver Ltd

TMI

Tri Metals Mining Corp.

GRG

Golden Arrow Res. Corp

TML

Treasury Metals Inc.

GSV

Gold Standard Ventures

TMQ

Trilogy Metals Inc.

GUY

Guyana Goldfields Inc.

TSN

Telson Resources (Soho)

GWA

Gowest Amalgamated Res.

TXG

Torex Gold

HL

Hecla Silver

TYP

Typhoon Exploration Inc.

HRT

Harte Gold Corp.

USA

Americas Silver

IMG

Iamgold

VIT

Victoria Gold Corp.

IPT

Impact Silver Corp.

WPM

Wheaton Precious Metals

ITH

International Tower Hill Mines

YRI

Yamana Gold Inc.



Source: https://gwyde.blogspot.com/2019/07/gold-miner-pulse-2019-half-year-update.html


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