A year ago the new linear regression between major gold miners (represented by the HUI gold miners index) and the gold price has been revealed. With the yellow metal now way above the interval used to derive the regression relationship, it has been verified that the linear regression still holds.
Despite a landslide plunge of miners during the Corona pandemic frenzy, both the yellow metal and miners recovered well, with the linear regression challenged but not broken, as was revealed in an previous posting : Revival of gold mines – Corona dip overcome.
After the yellow metal has been steaming up to and easily breaking its Aug 2011 all time high, it is useful to verify the regression relationship and verify parameters for any possible creep.
In order to derive a linear trend between two time dependent variables, it is necessary to eliminate time, retaining only the couples of variables. Here (HUI, Gold) couples are retained, whereby the gold price on the horizontal axis is used to ‘explain’ the aggregate price level of miners as revealed by the HUI index.
One year later, this is how the regression line looks like:
|HUI – Gold linear regression since Aug 2018: brown observed values and black regression line.
As explained before the ‘Corona dip’ shows up as a belly of values beneath the regression line showing up between about $1475 and 1675. As gold finally broke above $1800 early July, miners convincingly took the lead with a tiny set of values above the regression line till about the 2011 all-time-high.
The slope derived on the extended set is 0.270 against 0.261 mid May and 0.268 in Sep 2019. Not only did the regression relationship hold, the parameter creep we suffered upon the Corona dip also has been reversed.
Thus leads to following linear regression : HUI = 0.27 . (Gold – $699)
Moreover the correlation meanwhile improved to 0.947, where it only stood at 0.901 mid May. Last year the correlation also posted near 0.95.
|Synoptic view of the gold price (red, left axis) and the HUI index (blue, right axis)
|Regression residuals since mid August 2018, the validity start of the HUI-Gold regression.
|Regression residuals since Apr 20, 2020
Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!
Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!
HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.
Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.
MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser! Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover - Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).