Expert Says Gold Will Recover and Go to New Highs

Source: Barry Dawes 06/11/2024

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities takes a look at the current state of gold after Friday’s dip, as he believes gold should recover and go to new highs.

Gold bounced from Friday’s downdraft. US$ is strong. T Bonds give another (false?) rally in yield.

Key Points

Gold

• Pull back in gold has not breached parabolas
• Still in good support.
• Big falls take out selling energy
• Should recover and go on to new highs

Gold Stocks

• Still in symmetry box
• Good support beneath market
• Still in consolidation zone

Bonds

• Last gasp rally again
• Yields heading lower
• Market will be leading Fed lower

Currencies

• Euro heading lower
• Yen at lows again

Gold had a big sell off on Friday night that didn’t seem to cause much technical damage although the ascending triangle has been negated for now.

It was a big move, all right, just not in the anticipated direction. The Elliott Wave count is also difficult to read. Selloffs like these take out considerable selling energy, so short covering should take gold higher again.

Perhaps the most interesting development in the past week has been the change in the political scene in Europe with big swings away from the globalist and left wing woke governments.

Macron in France reacted to strong swings against him and followed similar developments in the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, and Italy.

It seems the days of control by the centralized and unrepresentative European Union might be coming to an end. The Euro was weaker and that concept of the Euro not being around by the end of 2025 doesn’t seem so silly. The major issues seem to be immigration and Green Energy policies.

It seems that many governments and administrations around the world are likely to also react to this, and incumbents will be feeling uneasy, particularly those in coalitions with green parties and with small majorities.

But, heed the markets.

Gold

This is a very difficult market to analyse technically so we just need to let the market to tell us what it wants to do.

Gold in most currencies is continuing the parabolic arcs higher. Maybe only 1-2% corrections left from here.

The long term issues haven’t changed and the political changes are more likely to direct us to a return to a gold standard. A bounce is to be expected and we need to just keep watching.

Supporting here and did not go low enough to test that low in early May.

The longer term looks OK.

Gold in US$ is still running in a parabola with <2% downside from here.

Gold in Yen made a new high in May.

Currency is still very weak.

Gold in Euros looks to be in support.

Euro weakening again.

Gold in AU$.

Maybe 2-3% weaker to hit parabola.

Gold Stocks

Still in the symmetry box, although this is ageing.

Big support at 130.

Considerable support within this consolidation band.

Bonds

Reaction rally only.

Another ‘goodbye kiss?’

The market will lead the Fed lower.

Head the markets, not the commentators.

[SECTORCOS-1]

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