Dips, Peaks, and Peace of Mind

I’ll be honest with you. I would love to tell you gold is headed to some giant number by next spring. Plenty of folks in this business do exactly that, and I’m sure it sells. Big numbers are exciting. They feel a lot like buying a lottery ticket: for a few days you get to dream about what you’d do with all that money. I’ve bought a ticket or two in my life. I’ve never won.

Dreaming is fun, but it isn’t reality. When the dream doesn’t come true, there’s disappointment, and then another big promise waiting right around the corner. Those dreams are easy to sell. What’s harder to say is the truth: owning precious metals is mostly boring. You buy, you store it safely, and then there’s very little to do but wait. That’s the point.

So there won’t be any predictions here. There are far too many moving parts for anyone to call it honestly. What I can share is what our family has seen at CMI since 1973, and how I’d think about a week like this one.

What a Week Like This Feels Like

Prices pulled back. As I write this, silver has slipped below $60 to around $56, and gold is near $4,110. Our phones get busier on days like these. Some people are nervous. Others are asking whether they missed their chance.

Over the years I’ve watched two kinds of customers in these moments. The first sells to chase the next rainbow: a hot stock or a cryptocurrency they’ve been told is the next great thing, so don’t delay. The second rides out the storm and holds. In my experience, the second person wins far more often. Honestly, I can’t remember many times they didn’t.

Why The Road Ahead Looks Bumpy

You don’t need to pick a side to see it. Governments are carrying heavy debt. Long-term interest rates have been climbing. Everyday costs are still high, and many families are leaning on credit cards to keep up. None of that gets settled on one Tuesday in November, no matter how the vote goes. Uncertainty tends to linger.

Gold and silver don’t need to know who wins. Their job is to hold value through whatever comes.

Keep The Pullback In Perspective

Gold started 2024 around $2,000. Even after this drop, it’s roughly double that. Big run-ups are almost always followed by pullbacks. That’s normal, and it doesn’t mean the reasons people own metal have gone away.

We also have a few clients who try to time every move. They follow whoever has the most clicks that week and try to buy low and sell high. It’s exhausting to watch, and harder to live. To this day, I can’t think of one of those clients who didn’t eventually trade themselves down to nothing.

The Secret

I’ve always liked the old saying about trying to catch a falling knife. Nobody catches the exact bottom. But if you have a plan and you’re prepared, a pullback like this is simply a chance to add at a better price. Set a budget, and buy in pieces over time. And if you miss the dip, that’s okay too.

Why buying “high” is still okay

Metal bought for protection is a lot like insurance. You don’t cancel your homeowner’s policy because the premium went up.

You hold on to it to prepare for unexpected storms in the future.

A Sad, But Telling Story

One of our clients taught me this better than any chart could. He was a big buyer, and he never fussed over the price; he bought at whatever it was that day. Then life happened. His accounts were frozen, and he was about to lose everything he had worked for.

His metal is what got him out of trouble. It didn’t matter one bit what he had paid for it. It was there when nothing else was.

He taught me something else that has nothing to do with metal. When I asked what happened, he told me one of his closest friends had taken advantage of him and many others in their community. Because of his actions, his friend carried the burden of shame, and he lost his closest friend. Although it was millions of dollars, he told me it was only money, and he would have forgiven his friend if he’d had the chance. That lesson of forgiveness and preparation still teaches me today.

When Selling Makes Sense

You probably know where I stand: I rarely encourage anyone to sell. But we also understand real life. Some people want to take a little profit. Some need the funds for another opportunity. Some face an emergency. That’s exactly what metal is there for.

When that day comes, CMI offers some of the strongest bids in the market. If someone shows you a better number, bring it to us, and we’ll work to meet or beat it. Just remember: the best bid in the world isn’t the best bid if you don’t get paid. When you sell to a family business that has been here since 1973, you know the money will be there.

Protect Your Family, Stay Calm

Uncertain times are coming. Preparation beats panic every time. Take a look at what you own, decide on a steady plan that fits your budget, and know who you can call when you have questions.

We’d be glad to talk it through with you, with no pressure and no fairy tales.

Johnny on the Spot is a no-nonsense article series about precious metal investing by Johnny Estes, CEO of CMI Gold & Silver.

This post is for general education only and is not personal investment advice.

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