Oil-Laden Cargo Vessel Without Power & Drifting Toward Canadian Coastline
From MarineTraffic.com – The СИМУШР in port in Busan, S. Korea.
According to satellite AIS data, the vessel is 10 miles SE of the coast, and slowly drifting almost due north at an average speed of 2.87 knots (3.3 mph) over the last 9 hours. Weather reports referenced by the Haida Nation stated, “Thirty-five to forty-five [MPH?] south-east winds are blowing the vessel to shore in a 7-10 metre sea.” However the release also stated that the winds are expected to turn westerly in the afternoon.
A weather buoy off the coast of Haida Gwaii is reporting that the wave height is down to 4.5 meters, but the winds are still coming from the southwest at 16-19 knots (~18-22 MPH). We cannot say with any certainty how the currents or winds will effect the vessel as it gets closer to shore, but a few straight-line calculations may put the risk in perspective.
If we plot a straight line from where the Симушр reported it was no longer under command, through the vessel’s last reported location, all the way to landfall with the coast; we find it has drifted approximately 29 miles in just under 9 hours. On this trajectory, it could reach the northern part of Haida Gwaii in 26 miles during the early hours of October 18th.
Fortunately, the last few reports show the path is shifting slightly toward the west. If we plot a straight line between the last two reported locations…
This trajectory clears the coastline by 4 miles, again in the early hours of tomorrow morning.
However, ocean currents and winds do not follow straight lines, so reality will almost certainly be somewhat different than these projections. Thankfully, nearby vessels like the North Star, an 839 foot American container ship, are closing in on the stricken ship to assist it. Additionally, the Gordon Reid, a Coast Guard Patrol Vessel, is only 21 miles away and closing fast. The Reid was originally reported to be 750 km (466 mi) away. This post will be updated as details unfold.
Source: http://blog.skytruth.org/2014/10/simushir-adrift.html
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