CDC Calls CoV "Serious Emerging Public Health Threat", Confirms 5th US Case!

By Tyler Durden / ZeroHedge

Summary:

• 5th US Coronavirus infection confirmed by CDC in 4 states (AZ, CA, IL, WA)

• CDC calls the virus an  ”emerging public health threat,” adding that the threat is “serious.”

• 2082 cases, 56 Official deaths

• Incubation is asymptomatic, contagious, and can be as long as 14 days

• 5M may have left Wuhan for Lunar New Year

• 1st case was Dec 1 NOT Dec 31 so infect pop may be much bigger

• US, Russia, Thailand begin plans for evacuation

• Premier Li Keqiang charged with leading government’s task force

• 3 Beijing hospitals using AIDS drugs to treat virus

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Update (1510ET): CDC reports that a fifth infection has been confirmed in the US (in Arizona), calling the coronavirus an “emerging public health threat,” says threat is “serious.”

Situation Summary

CDC is closely monitoring an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus (termed “2019-nCoV”) that was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and which continues to expand. Chinese health officials have reported more than a thousand infections with 2019-nCoV in China, including outside of Hubei Province. Infections with 2019-nCoV also are being reported in a growing number of international locations, including the United States, where 5 cases in travelers from Wuhan have been confirmed in four states (AZ, CA, IL, WA) as of January 26, 2020.

Source and Spread of the Virus

Chinese health authorities were the first to post the full genome of the 2019-nCoV in GenBank  El , the NIH genetic sequence database, and in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID Z ) portal, an action which has facilitated detection of this virus. On January 24, 2020, CDC posted in GenBank the full genome of the 2019-nCoV virus detected in the first U.S. patient from Washington state. The virus Chinese health authorities were the first to post the full genome of the 2019-nCoV in GenBank  El , the NIH genetic sequence database, and in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID Cl ) portal, an action which has facilitated detection of this virus. On January 24, 2020, CDC posted in GenBank the full genome of the 2019-nCoV virus detected in the first U.S. patient from Washington state. The virus genetic sequence from the patient in Washington is nearly identical to the sequences posted from China. The available sequences suggest a likely single, recent emergence from a virus related to bat coronaviruses and the SARS coronavirus. The available sequence information does not provide any information about severity of associated illness or transmissibility of the virus.

Early on, many of the patients in the outbreak in Wuhan, China reportedly had some link to a large seafood and animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. However, a growing number of patients reportedly have not had exposure to animal markets, and there is evidence that person-to-person spread is occurring. At this time, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people. Learn what is known about the spread of newly emerged coronaviruses.

Illness Severity

Both MERS and SARS have been known to cause severe illness in people. The complete clinical picture with regard to 2019-nCoV is still not fully clear. Reported illnesses have ranged from infected people with little to no symptoms to people being severely ill and dying. Learn more about the symptoms associated with 2019- nCoV.

There are ongoing investigations to learn more. This is a rapidly evolving situation and information will be updated as it becomes available.

Risk Assessment

Outbreaks of novel virus infections among people are always of public health concern. The risk from these outbreaks depends on characteristics of the virus, including whether and how well it spreads between people, the severity of resulting illness, and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccine or treatment medications).

Investigations are ongoing to learn more, but person-to-person spread of 2019-nCoV is occurring. Chinese officials report that sustained person-to-person spread in the community is occurring in China. Person-to-person spread in the United States has not yet been detected, but it’s likely to occur to some extent. It’s important to note that person-to-person spread can happen on a continuum. Some viruses are highly contagious (like measles), while other viruses are less so. It’s important to know this in order to better assess the risk posed by this virus. While CDC considers this is a very serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.

CDC recommends getting vaccinated, taking everyday preventive actions to stop the spread of germs, and taking flu antivirals if prescribed.

And the poiliticking has begun…

The Hill✔@thehill

Sen. Schumer: “All CDC has to do is declare the coronavirus an emergency and that will spring up to to $85 million that’s immediately available… to prevent the spread.”

12:15 PM – Jan 26, 2020

*  *  *

Update (1400ET): It’s official: The Wuhan coronavirus has arrived in America’s second-largest city. The LA County Department of Public Health just confirmed what is now the fourth case discovered in the US.

CBS Los Angeles✔@CBSLA

JUST IN: The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has confirmed the first case of the novel coronavirus in Los Angeles County. https://cbsloc.al/37A9REw 

Public Health Officials Confirm First Case Of Novel Coronavirus In LA County

The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health has confirmed the first case of the novel coronavirus in Los Angeles County.

losangeles.cbslocal.com

10:48 AM – Jan 26, 2020

As we noted earlier, California has dozens of suspected cases, many of which have been tested and cleared. But some still remain. We suspect this won’t be the last case in Cali (they’ve already confirmed 2, this one and a case in nearby Orange County). The virus has also been discovered in Illinois and Washington state. State health officials told CBS Los Angeles that the individual recently traveled to Wuhan, and is receiving ‘appropriate care’ at a local hospital.

Remember when Trump said the Chinese had things ‘under control’?

Oh and one more thing before we go: The other day we joked that China’s decision to send hundreds of PLA ‘medics’ to help stabilize the situation in Wuhan was code for placing the PLA in charge and declaring de facto martial law.

Well, guess what”

Gregor Peter@L0gg0l

New video shows PLA troops deployed to Wuhan hospital pic.twitter.com/Q1glZgWcd9 (via @monkeym4) #nCov2019

9:50 AM – Jan 26, 2020

Communists – they’re not as full of surprises as they used to be.

Every time there’s a problem it’s ‘send in the tanks’…

* * *

Update (1240ET): Just as we expected, the outbreak-related news out of China went from bad to worse on Sunday, as Wuhan’s Mayor not only informed the public that he suspects the number of cases in the city to increase by a considerable margin (as we mentioned below), but also that some 5 million residents of Wuhan – roughly half of the city’s population – had already left the city before the quarantine was fully implemented. Some left early last week for the lunar new year holiday, while others fled after learning about Beijing’s plans to cut off the city from the outside world (except for the flow of personnel and supplies needed to fight the outbreak).

Anybody who tries to leave Wuhan on Sunday will find the roads blocked and guards ordering them to turn back.

The barricade, at one of the tolls for highways exiting the city, was blocked with red and yellow plastic barriers and cones.

“Nobody can leave,” a policeman told AFP.

But that’s far from the only disturbing news to emerge in the past few hours.

To try and assuage citizens’ frustration about the virus overshadowing the LNY holiday, Beijng announced an extension of the holiday. That should take a bigger bite out of China’s GDP as factories, offices and government services will remain shuttered – but ideally China’s battered travel and tourism industry might be able to make up for some of the hit. As we noted earlier, Suzhou, a factory hub, was the first city to announce a holiday-like shutdown of industry until Feb. 8. China’s top transportation official confirmed on Sunday that travel has plummeted for the holiday. On Saturday, overall transportation dropped by 28.8% from the same day last year. Railway transportation fell by 41.5%, roads 25% and passenger flights 41.6%.

After the third case was confirmed in California on Sunday, health officials in Virginia have announced that three patients suspected to have contracted the virus are under observation, according to Fox. More alarmingly, a student at Connecticut’s Wesleyan University is being monitored for the virus after reporting a fever and a cough. Though it has yet to be confirmed, this underscores the difficulty in stopping the spread of the virus to the US, as Chinese students return to their American schools for the new semester, as the Hartford Courant reports. More suspected cases have been reported in California and Texas (though the Texas cases have mostly been cleared). University officials at Wesleyan said they’ve been in touch with everyone that the sick student – whose name was not released – has been in contact with.

In a sign that the WHO is facing pressure to finally declare the outbreak a global health emergency (which it declined to do last week), WHO Director-General Tedros said in a tweet that he was on his way to Beijing to “confer” with top Chinese officials and health experts about the outbreak. Underlining the gravity of the situation, President Xi has placed his No. 2, Premier Li Keqiang, to lead the team monitoring the coronavirus as the outbreak worsens.

On Sunday, Ma Xiaowei, China’s National Health Commission, revealed that the incubation period for the virus is around 10 days – though the shortest case was 1 day, and longest 14 - and, more importantly, that those who have contracted the virus might be contagious before symptoms emerge. That wasn’t the case for the SARS outbreak in 2003, and it will make the virus much more difficult to contain. Ma added that there are signs the virus is adapting to spread even more quickly from human to human, per the SCMP. 

Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told a press conference that battling the outbreak was complicated, particularly as it had been discovered that the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period, which did not happen with Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome).

“From observations, the virus is capable of transmission even during incubation period,” Ma said, adding that the incubation period lasted from one to 14 days.

“Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said.

Ma said also that the virus had adapted to humans and appeared to have become more transmissible.

“There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult.”

The authorities had also not ruled out the possibility of the virus mutating in the future, he said, which meant it could spread to different age groups.

To date, most of the people infected are in the 40-60 age range, health officials said earlier.

SARS had an incubation period of 2-7 days, and was not infectious during that time. And it still killed more than 800 people after infecting more than 8,000 around the world.

Circling back to the mad rush to leave Wuhan, while the city has 11 million official residents, it also hosts millions more guest workers, noted CNBC’s Eunice Yoon. Interestingly, as more cities declared travel bans on Sunday, Shantou, a city in Guangdong Province, overturned its decision, saying it will monitor people, vehicles and ships entering and city, but said there will be no travel restrictions on buses, ride-shares, and taxis. Yoon speculated that the city pulled the plan after being contacted by senior party officials so as not to set a “every-town-for-itself” precedent.

Eunice Yoon✔@onlyyoontv

Interesting reversal by Shantou in Guangdong Province. City sent new notice overturning previous decision. Now says will monitor people, vehicles, ships entering city but no travel restrictions. All taxi, car hailing, buses to operate normally. Vehicles only need disinfection.

3:10 AM – Jan 26, 2020

Eunice Yoon✔@onlyyoontv

My guess is top Chinese officials realized the potential domino effect Shantou’s decision could have— triggering a possible “every-town-for-itself” mentality across #China and maybe national paralysis. Likely someone high up contacted Shantou to get locals to pull the notice.

3:11 AM – Jan 26, 2020

And in a few areas, vigilantes have apparently taken on the responsibility of guarding the perimeter.

Keith Zhai@QiZHAI

Meanwhile… this man is trying to stop strangers from entering to his village

12:29 AM – Jan 26, 2020

Fortunately, few new deaths have been reported so far on Sunday. But the count of confirmed cases had climbed to 2082, and – as the mayor said – many more cases will likely be confirmed by Monday morning local time. Meanwhile, the US, Russia, Thailand and South Korea are still plotting an evacuation for citizens stuck in Wuhan.

As doctors desperately search for a cure or vaccine, three Beijing hospitals designed as coronavirus treatment centers have reportedly started treating patients with a combination of anti-HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir. The two powerful retrovirals are sold in a combination under the brand name Kaletra, which is produced by AbbVie. Research on 41 Wuhan cases published in Friday’s edition of The Lancet medical journal noted that the drugs were useful in treating SARS, which was also a coronavirus, per SCMP.

“Online rumors say that an anti-Aids drug has been used and proved to be effective in treating the coronavirus,” according to a statement by Beijing Municipal Health Commission. “The National Health Commission has recommended the rumored names to treat the coronavirus before and we have Lopinavir/Ritonavir in stock in Beijing,”

Three Beijing hospitals designated to treat confirmed coronavirus cases – Beijing Ditan Hospital, Beijing Youan Hospital, and No 5 Medical Center of PLA General Hospital – have begun using this therapy for treatment, the statement added.

The two drugs are antiretrovirals, which block the ability of HIV to bind with healthy cells and reproduce, and are often used in combination to treat the illness.

CNBC’s Yoon shared another treatment strategy that relies on even more common medications, including Tamiflu.

Eunice Yoon✔@onlyyoontv

Plan 1: Moxifloxacin 0.4Qd or Levofloxacin (no history of allergy to Quinolone) + Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) 75mg BID, 5 days
Plan 2: Intravenous drip of Ceftriaxone 2.0 + Saline 250ml + Azithromycin 0.25 Qd, taken after meal, quarantined, apply for 2019-nCoV testing kit.
(Source is..

10:25 AM – Jan 26, 2020

Still, not enough research has been done to definitively confirm that these medications are effective in combating the virus. At last check, Beijing has reported 51 cases of the virus, 49 of which remain hospitalized, while two have been cured and one remains in critical condition.

Scientists are still racing to produce a vaccine. Hopefully, one will be found before the worst-case scenario projected by some epidemiologists becomes a reality. Until then, looks like Abbvie will see a substantial bump in sales. But in the meantime, maybe officials in Beijing can send some of those AIDS drugs down to Wuhan. Or they could at least send over a few truckloads of Tamiflu.

* * *

Update (0950ET): As the world is on edge with the rise of the number of officially reported coronavirus infections (and deaths), the mayor of Wuhan said Sunday that he expects new cases to jump by 1,000. 

Secret Beijing@Secret_Beijing

#Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang is now hosting a press conference in Wuhan. “1000 new cases of #coronavirus are expected in Wuhan at the moment.” Many netizens are outrageous about the slow reaction of the local govt over the outbreak and ask him to take responsibility for it.

6:18 AM – Jan 26, 2020

Aria Chen✔@ariahychen

Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang said there’ll likely be 1,000 more confirmed cases. That’s an estimate from the current 2209 suspected cases & 643 other under observation.

6:24 AM – Jan 26, 2020

Mayor Zhou Xianwang told Reuters and other journalists in a briefing that Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, could soon report an additional 1,000 new cases, which will push total cases across Mainland China to about 3,000. 

Xianwang said the city is constructing several new hospitals to deal with infected patients. 

He said the city had received new supplies of protective gear including biological suits, masks, and glasses, which have been in short supply. 

Xinqi Su 蘇昕琪@XinqiSu

Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang suggested residents quarantining themselves at home to put up a signboard at their door step to “notify others and rationally turn LNY visitors away”.

5:29 AM – Jan 26, 2020

If Xianwang is correct about the increase of new cases, this could mean by the end of Sunday, a total of 3,000 cases could be confirmed across the world, and suggest that Jonathan Read’s model of 250 thousand infected in the next several weeks could become a reality.

* * *

Hundreds of medical personnel are rushing to Wuhan following yesterday’s tragic death of Doctor Liang Wudong, of the ENT department of Hubei Xinhua Hospital, who died Saturday while fighting to suppress the virus. The South China Morning Post reports that 1,350 medics (presumably from the PLA) have already arrived in the city, and another 1,000 are expected to arrive soon.

As the number of confirmed cases surges past 2,000, China is scrambling to build not one, but two, SARS treatment-model hospitals in Wuhan (remember, Wuhan is a massive city of 11 million). Authorities have told the press that they expect both hospitals and their combined 2,300 beds to be operational within half a month.

Even though researchers have purportedly cast doubt on the theory that the coronavirus didn’t make the jump from animals to humans thanks to a shady food market that trafficking in live wild animals, officials in Beijing on Sunday banned the sale of live wild animals, including bats and snakes, at markets, supermarkets, restaurants and e-commerce platforms across the country. But we thought eating bats was a delicacy and an ingrained cultural practice not to be criticized or stifled?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/third-us-coronavirus-case-confirmed-orange-county

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